How polarisation over #JNUShutDown will help BJP

The controversy that has arisen out of the "martyrdom" day events to mark terror convict Afzal Guru's hanging on the JNU campus and at the Press Club of India has split different sections of the society - JNU students, teachers, politicians, intellectuals, lawyers, social media and even the journalists.

Compared with the previous controversial issues ever since Narendra Modi became the prime minister, such as church attacks, beef ban, cow slaughter, Gajendra Chauhan as Films and Television Institute of India (FTII) chairperson, Dadri lynching, award wapsi, intolerance debate and suicide of Hyderabad University student Rohith Vemula, the JNU imbroglio is certainly a far more polarising episode.

While the other issues were clearly communal in nature and harmed the BJP (it lost the Delhi and Bihar Assembly elections), the JNU row is targeted against those who allegedly indulge in or encourage anti-national activities. It promises to draw in not only the fence-sitters [such as the veterans who have threatened to return their JNU degrees in protest against anti-India slogans like "Bharat tere tukde honge, Inshallah, Inshallah" (India, you will be split into pieces, God willing, God willing) and "India ki barbaadi tak jung rahegi" (fight to continue till destruction of India)], but also some hardcore Congress supporters and centrists, knowingly or unwittingly to the NDA camp.

In effect, the polarisation arising out of the JNU row will only help the BJP-led NDA and these are four ways how:

1. Bypoll success

In the by-elections to 12 assembly seats held in eight states on February 13, the NDA won seven. The NDA improved its tally because previously it held just three seats out of these 12. While the BJP wrested riot-hit Muzaffarnagar in Uttar Pradesh from the Samajwadi Party, Maihar in Madhya Pradesh and Devdurga in Karnataka from the Congress, Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) won Khadoor Sahib seat in Punjab which was earlier held by the Congress.

The NDA, which had lost in the Bihar Assembly elections in November 2015, not only retained its seat in Harlakhi but won by five times of the margin it had got last time. This, despite ruling Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) supremo Lalu Yadav campaigning vigorously there. The videos of JNU students shouting anti-India slogans on February 9 and 10 immediately went went viral and JNU Students' Union (JNUSU) president Kanhaiya Kumar was arrested on February 12, a day before the bypolls. While the local factors played the most important role in voting (such as the deteriorating law and order situation in Bihar pushing it to "Jungle Raj 2"), the JNU controversy may also have contributed towards tilting the results in favour of the NDA.

2. Budget session of Parliament

The BJP was on the defensive after Rohith Vemula's suicide. The Congress and the Left were all set to raise the issue aggressively in the Budget session of Parliament. However, the JNU incident has given the BJP a much-needed defence to counter them and put the Opposition on the backfoot. As it is, the Congress is literally in the dock with its president Sonia Gandhi and her son Rahul Gandhi being on bail in the alleged National Herald misappropriation of funds and cheating case.

In all likelihood, the Budget session will also be a virtual washout like the Monsoon and Winter sessions. The Monsoon session fell victim to the demand by the Opposition to take action against Union external affairs minister Sushma Swaraj and Rajasthan chief minister Vasundhara Raje in the Lalit Modi-related scandal and Madhya Pradesh chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan in the Vyapam scam. The Winter session started on a calm note and in the backdrop of a demoralised BJP which had suffered a humiliating defeat in Bihar.

But the National Herald case agitated the Congress which disrupted it midway after Sonia and Rahul received summons to appear before the trial court though they assigned different reasons to the ruckus they created. Against the previous two sessions, the BJP will also be emboldened in the wake of its impressive performance in the bypolls and a defensive Left and the Congress on the JNU anti-India slogans issue.

3. JNU under scanner

JNU has come under spotlight because of the "anti-national" activities going on there. The Left-dominated university has come under the scanner of the government too. Commissioner of Delhi Police BS Bassi said on February 17 that it had ample evidence against Kanhaiya Kumar and that several seditious activities were taking place on the campus. The once prestigious JNU's image has been tarnished now because of the anti-national slogans. All this will lead the government to put the activities of the Left-dominated students' and teachers' unions, which had blocked visit of Yoga guru Baba Ramdev, under the radar. There are strong demands from certain quarters to flush out anti-national elements, including the faculty which provides moral support to the students. The government may well pay heed to it. In turn, this will help the ABVP and the BJP/RSS-affiliated teachers' association to spread their wings in JNU.

4. Impact on forthcoming Assembly elections

A highly polarised atmosphere usually helps the BJP in elections. It won 73 of the 80 Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh, riding on the communally-charged atmosphere after the Muzaffarnagar riots. Polarisation of votes in the name of nationalism will also help the BJP in the forthcoming Assembly elections in Kerala, West Bengal and Assam which have already got divided on religious lines. The JNU row will only sharpen this divide and will favour the BJP further.