Kashmir crisis is ultimately PDP’s loss and BJP’s gain
The overall security situation in the state of Jammu and Kashmir, particularly in the Kashmir valley, is getting grimmer with each passing day.
The ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) is nowhere near holding the Valley’s base of voters. Apart from occasional rhetoric like “PDP ended monopoly of a single party in J&K” - as repeated by state minister Chowdhary Zulfikar Ali on PDP’s 18th Foundation Day - it is all a repeat of what we have been witnessing in the last 70 years in Kashmir.
Be it the political or development front, the present political dispensation has failed in every manner. The PDP especially is the failure here as the right-wing BJP (with which it is running the state) is gaining with each day in Jammu – the BJP’s vote base – while the PDP is losing all the ground that was gained by its patron, the late Mufti Mohammad Sayeed, and once the “people’s leader”, the incumbent CM Mehbooba Mufti.
As far as promises made on the political front vis-à-vis Kashmir are concerned - talks with Pakistan and Hurriyat and the dialogue process - the helplessness of Mehbooba is quite visible. At each and every forum, be it Srinagar or New Delhi, PDP leaders, particularly Mehbooba, raise the question of resolving the Kashmir issue and holding dialogue with all stakeholders often and with vigour. However, her alliance partner BJP has made it a point to counter her concerns with the cry of “pseudo nationalism”, which has left Mehbooba and her party red-faced, at least in front of her constituency in Kashmir.
Another worrying factor for Mehbooba is the growing militancy in the Valley, especially in the south, which she inherited from former chief minister Omar Abdullah. While the local militants had not swelled so much during Omar’s government, the BJP by upping the ante, has made sure that PDP also loses its strong votebank in south Kashmir.
On the other hand, BJP’s policy of “killing all active militants both local and foreigners will help in resolving the Kashmir problem”, is not only flawed but seems immature.
Since July 30, 12 people have been killed in various encounters between militants and state government forces - three civilians, seven militants and an Army Major and Army sepoy - aptly showing the grim situation that Kashmir is going through.
On the slightest provocation, students are back on the streets, stones in hands and up against the “oppressor”, in this case the Jammu and Kashmir Police and CRPF.
The present dispensation’s argument is that all this is being done by opposition parties like the National Conference and Congress or by the “punching bags” - Pakistan and Hurriyat. What the PDP is not accepting is its own shortcomings, especially after it stitched an alliance with the right-wing BJP.
The only remedy left with the PDP government for all problems is to shut down the internet, schools and impose restriction on the movement of people. What the state government is trying to do is to cure the cancer with disprin.
A high ranking police official told this author: “For how long we will patrol the streets? There needs to be some political initiative which has to be taken by the political dispensation, the sooner the better. We cannot go on and on after these young boys. There has to be a permanent policy from the political leadership, from the Centre as well as the state so that an end is put to these street protests.”
What this police officer was trying to say to me last Sunday morning was that a political initiative has to come from the top, in this case New Delhi, and fully implemented by the state government.
The situation in the south of the state is very grim for the PDP. Many of the party workers, with whom this author spoke, readily accept that they are afraid of visiting their native villages in the south.
Apart from two or three conventions that were held by some youth PDP leaders, the overall political space is fast shrinking for PDP. On the other hand, given the brazen onslaught of the BJP in the rest of India, it is no wonder if the party manages to get five to 10 seats in the Valley in the 2020 Assembly elections.
If rumours are to be believed, there are also talks going around of a non-Kashmiri chief minister being installed in Jammu and Kashmir. If such a thing happens, it will be self-defeat not only for PDP but for mainstream politics in Kashmir as well.