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Just how desperate is Modi government to stop no-confidence motion?

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Anand Kochukudy
Anand KochukudyMar 20, 2018 | 19:38

Just how desperate is Modi government to stop no-confidence motion?

For the third day in succession, speaker Sumitra Mahajan adjourned the Lok Sabha without taking up the motion of no-confidence. The notices given by Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and YSR Congress (YSRC) have the support of major Opposition parties.

While the speaker has taken recourse to the argument that the House has to be in order for the no-confidence motion to be taken up, constitutional experts have already contradicted her claim saying the speaker is duty-bound to allow the motion to go through if the quorum of 50 members is realised. They have also pointed out how the speaker needn’t "admit" the no-confidence motion as it arises from Article 75 of the Constitution.

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While the speaker’s actions can definitely be construed as partisan under the circumstances, it is the spectacle of BJP’s half-ally All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) disrupting the House and holding up placards in the well that have aroused suspicion in all and sundry. Almost a week ago, Biju Janata Dal’s Pinaki Mishra and some of the other Opposition members had pointed out how a washout favoured the government as it would escape accountability to the House. The BJP has washed its hands off by stating the din is being created by the AIADMK and even the TRS (Telengana Rashtra Samiti), that aren’t officially NDA allies. 

A no-confidence motion under rule 198-B (Chapter XVIII of the rules of procedure) necessitates that a debate be held following the House granting "leave" to the members moving the motion.

The BJP’s eagerness to delay the inevitable is possibly to avoid a debate involving the sensational Nirav Modi-Punjab National bank scam and alleged scams like the Rafale deal. Moreover, BJP’s losses in recent by-elections have led to some of their bellwether allies getting vocal on issues and flexing their muscles. From enjoying a simple majority by itself and NDA allies/sympathisers providing them with a huge buffer, things have changed drastically in the run-up to this second phase of the Budget session.

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Even if the motion is the end result of a game of political one-upmanship played out in Andhra Pradesh, that doesn’t take anything away from it. In fact, the government coming under pressure from its erstwhile allies themselves is a cause for concern and major embarrassment for the BJP. The TDP has a point when it claims the BJP had led them up the garden path promising to give them special status.

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As for major Opposition parties like the Congress, it isn’t surprising that they latched on to this opportunity without second thoughts. It can be argued that if the Congress were to move a no-trust motion instead, it wouldn’t have the same impact of a motion moved by erstwhile allies of this government. The BJP’s troubles are only growing since ally Shiv Sena has indicated that it would abstain from voting. It would be a loss of face for Prime Minister Modi if it can be demonstrated in the House that his government enjoys the support of merely 290-odd MPs.

That would be sufficient grounds to argue that the government has lost popularity and a change is in the offing in the general elections. As such, current allies of the government like Lok Jan Shakti’s Ram Vilas Paswan and Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party’s Om Prakash Rajbhar have gone on record to express their reservations and displeasure with this government.

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The decisive factor in shifting the mood has been the victory of the SP-BSP alliance in the UP by-elections. Till then, it seemed that BJP’s victory in 2019 was a foregone conclusion in the face of a disunited Opposition.

It isn’t clear how this would play out eventually and if the government has any aces up its sleeve when the motion is finally taken up. It has been suggested that even the timing of Karti Chidambaram’s arrest could have been a tactic to distract from the Nirav Modi scam. Without exception, this government has had the better of the Opposition in the lower house since 2014, and it is possible that the government has a strategy to combat the no-confidence motion in the days to come. It is also possible that the government is just biding time at the moment and working out some strategy.

Either way, the government is fast losing goodwill as the onus to run Parliament rests primarily with the government. The way the Finance Bill was passed in the din without debate smacks of double standards and calls into question the conduct of the Lok Sabha speaker. Even the argument cited by speaker Sumitra Mahajan for not taking up the no-confidence motion doesn’t stand scrutiny as rules put the onus on maintaining order in the House squarely on the speaker.

The current impasse indicates that legislative activities could take a backseat in the final year of this government as it engages in firefighting on different fronts. The Opposition parties will have to make sure that they are ready for the debate whenever the motion is taken up and the government doesn’t catch them by surprise as it happened on previous occasions.

They would also need to coordinate more closely among themselves in Parliament beyond announcing regional fronts every other week, if they wish to corner the government.

Last updated: March 21, 2018 | 16:51
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