Shiv Sena's fate hangs in fine balance

Remember that famous Ajit joke: “Ise liquid oxygen mein rakho. Liquid isse jeene nahin dega, oxygen isse marne nahin dega” (keep him in liquid oxygen, liquid won't let him live, oxygen won't let him die). The Shiv Sena’s position in Maharashtra is no different to one of Ajit’s ‘victims’. The party needs the oxygen of  power to survive, but joining a BJP-led government could also be the kiss of death in its attempt to strike an independent identity. Right through the election campaign, the Sena had spoken out against the BJP’s leadership. In an interview to me, Udhav Thackeray described the BJP’s solo attempt at conquering Maharashtra as similar to Afzal Khan’s army raiding the bastion of Shivaji. He even chose to call Amit Shah a “Shahenshah” before whom “Maratha pride” would not bend. And then a day before the polls, the Sena chief gave an interview to party mouthpiece Saamna raising Mr Modi’s "chaiwallah" origins (the offending portion was later excised).

This background means that even if  the Sena joins the government, it will be in an atmosphere of bitterness and animosity. Moreover, the numbers are heavily weighted in the favour of  the BJP. To use another old Hindi line: “BJP ke donon hathon mein laddoo hain!” If the Sena doesn’t join the government, the BJP can easily form a minority government with NCP support. The Sena also knows it cannot afford to destabilize a BJP government in Maharashtra. If  the Sena decides to join the Maharashtra government, it can do so but without imposing any conditions. The balance of  power has shifted: a sharp lakshman rekha has been drawn by the Modi-Shah combine. The Sena will have to come to terms with a new reality. This is not 1995 where the Sena was the dominant partner in the Maharashtra alliance and Bal Thackeray was the unquestioned supremo. Now, Modi is the Field Marshal and Udhav Thackeray a minor regional chieftain.