Why deepening Maldives crisis should worry India
The beleaguered government of Maldivian President Abdulla Yameen Gayoom, which has been moving from one crisis to another, has now been given a body blow as health minister Dunya Maumoon resigned from her post, second minister to do so since the imposition of Emergency on February 5.
She was apparently feeling suffocated and frustrated with the Yameen government particularly since her father, Maumoon Gayoom, a former president who ruled Maldives for over three decades, was arrested recently on orders of his half-brother President Abdulla Yameen on criminal charges.
I reaffirm my commitment to serving the nation, in my capacity, as an independent, more so now, given the status of our beloved country. Insha Allah pic.twitter.com/L5AwOKYEPC
— Dunya Maumoon (@dunyamaumoon) February 27, 2018
Though Dunya Maumoon has said in her resignation letter that she hasn't joined the Opposition, the development is bound to bolster the Opposition which has been at its wits’ end in dealing with the increasingly autocratic President Abdulla Yameen. Despite her caveat of not joining the Opposition, she has expressed concern about the state of democracy, judiciary and institutions and called upon the international community to help getting all these back on rails.
Three weeks to the day they took you. Miss you Bappa! pic.twitter.com/ykeWZeZ6Ye
— Dunya Maumoon (@dunyamaumoon) February 27, 2018
This has been the consistent demand of the Maldivian Opposition for quite some time. Obviously, it means that the Opposition has got a shot in the arm and Dunya is firmly in the Opposition camp despite her feeble caveats to the contrary.
Dunya Maumoon’s resignation came hours after it surfaced that India had offered to Maldives to participate in the biennial naval exercise, Milan, to be held in Port Blair early next month, but the Maldives government declined the offer - a clear snub to India by Maldives ostensibly at the behest of China.
Although Maldivian authorities have "explained" to India that under the current circumstances when the island nation has been under a state of emergency, it wasn't possible for Maldives to participate in the naval exercises as the Maldivian defence forces were on a standby to deal with any exigency. The Maldivian government’s rejection of the Indian offer to join the Milan exercises is being looked upon in the Indian strategic establishment as the Yameen government’s latest snub to India.
It has been quite clear in the past few months that Maldives has flown out of the Indian orbit and flown into the Chinese sphere instead. It was demonstrated a few months ago when Maldives had signed its first-ever FTA with China, leaving India high and dry despite the Yameen government’s repeated assurances to New Delhi about its India-first policy.
Maldives’ rapid drifting away from India and its China embrace came into sharp focus once again after news reports emerged in the Indian media that China was at the cusp of getting a military base in Maldives by way of Beijing establishing a joint ocean observation station in Maldives’ Makunudhoo, which is not very far from India.
India, though seething with anger over the recent developments in Maldives, cannot do much to reverse the tide under the current circumstances.
An Indian military intervention, sought by Opposition leader and former Maldivian president Mohammed Nasheed, is out of question. It's not just because of Chinese warnings, but essentially because of well-established principles of Indian foreign policy of not intervening in domestic affairs of a foreign power unless a specific request is made by the government of the troubled country.
Moreover, since the nightmarish experience of Indian intervention in Sri Lanka when the then prime minister Rajiv Gandhi sent Indian Peace Keeping Force (IPKF) to Sri Lanka, it has been the unwritten principle of India not to embark on military missions abroad.
Under the circumstances, the only doable option before India is to work through the United Nations route.
In this context, the following initiative of an international body bells with the Indian scheme of things.
The LAWASIA Initiative
LAWASIA, the law association for Asia and the Pacific comprising of national bar associations and law societies in the United Nations ESCAP Region, has just decided to establish a fact-finding team for the purpose of ascertaining the situation with regard to:
1) The independence of the judiciary in Maldives
2) The independence of the Judicial Services Commission, and the transparency of the process for appointment of judges and investigations of complaints regarding judicial conduct
3) The independence of the legal profession, and whether members of the legal profession are able to perform their professional duties unhindered and free of harassment or intimidation
4) Due process in the administration of justice in the Republic of Maldives
5) The rule of law and rights-related issues.
The LAWASIA fact-finding team, led by its president Christopher Leong, is an independent team with an objective mission which is not to be sponsored by any parties, organisations or individuals from Maldives.
This initiative is in response to the Maldivian foreign ministry's February 7 statement which said: “Maldives would like to invite its development partners and representatives from international organisations and associations to visit Maldives to assess the situation and witness the safety and security of Male, for their own citizens as well as to engage with the Government and key stakeholders in the country.”
India will be backing the LAWASIA Initiative to the hilt, knowing full well that initiatives like these can bring more fruits quickly than the efforts of the marginalised Opposition.