Why a 'godforsaken' Manipur has suddenly become so important
With just a little over a month left for the Assembly elections, there is a whole new urgency to end the three-month-long blockade in Manipur.
The state will soon complete 100 days of economic blockade. Since November 1, the UNC has imposed a blockade on NH-2 (Imphal-Dimapur) and NH-37 (Imphal-Jiribam) that serve as lifelines for the landlocked Manipur after the state government decided to bifurcate Naga-dominated areas and create seven new districts. While NH-37 was partially reopened, there is no traffic movement on NH-2.
On February 3, the United Naga Council (UNC) and members of the state government held tripartite talks with the Centre after which it is being said that blockade may finally come to an end. The next tripartite meeting is expected on February 7.
For the uninitiated, Manipur goes to polls on March 4 and 8.
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| Manipur CM O Ibobi Singh says since the central government is in peace talks with the NSCN(IM), they can easily put pressure on the UNC to call off the economic blockade. (Credit: PTI file) |
Strangely, when the election dates were announced a month back (January 4) for the five states — Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur — the state was already reeling under a two-month-long economic blockade that has disrupted the transport of essential items to Manipur and, needless to say, affected everyday life. Prices of all commodities have skyrocketed even as petrol, diesel and LPG cylinders are being sold at excruciatingly high prices in black markets (petrol prices Rs 400 per litre while LPG cylinders Rs 3,000-Rs4,000).
While the BJP initially did request to postpone the polls in view of the blockade, the announcement by the Election Commission came as a major relief to the Congress-led state government.
In early January, governor Najma Heptulla had recommended that President's Rule be imposed in the state but an alarmed Congress government, including chief minister Okram Ibobi Singh, rushed to Delhi to convince President Pranab Mukherjee and the EC that the polls be held on time. Surprisingly, Union home minister Rajnath Singh too said the government was not in a hurry to impose President's Rule and was in touch with all sections to end the blockade.
So, what was it that led everybody, including the BJP, to go ahead with an election amid such chaos and uncertainty?
According to sources in the BJP, there was a huge divide within the party over this question. While Ram Madhav, general secretary in charge of NE states, insisted that delay in polls will slow down the momentum the party has gathered in the past few months, others believed that postponement would benefit the party, which was anyway losing popularity owing to the blockade.
But there was another uncertainty. No one knew whether the UNC would call off the blockade even after the polls were postponed. So, everyone decided to brace for the polls.
Meanwhile, the UNC, which was adamant over the blockade, suddenly seems to be coming around with the elections approaching. Till a month back, it maintained the stand of intensifying the blockade.
UNC general secretary Milan Shimray told mediapersons that there was a perception the UNC could lift the blockade in view of the polls, but it would continue till elections and beyond.
“Elections are not our priority. Our priority is to protect and safeguard our ancestral homeland. Nobody should impose any decision on the land of our forefathers,” he said.
So what has happened now. How have things changed?
Many in the difficult to reach (read understand) region have raised eyebrows over Madhav's closeness with the Nagas. They believe the saffron party has clearly sided with the them in the present crisis. And the reason for that is believed to be the much-hyped peace talks with the NSCN (IM).
Even CM Okram Ibobi Singh had said that "since the central government is in peace talks with the NSCN(IM), they can easily put pressure on the UNC to call off the economic blockade".
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| Union home minister Rajnath Singh had earlier said the government was not in a hurry to impose President's Rule in Manipur and was in touch with all sections to ease the blockade. (Credit: PTI photo) |
All this has put the BJP in a strange situation.
On one hand, the UNC has stopped the movement of goods to the plain areas of the state inhabited by the Hindu Meiteis — BJP's primary voter base.
On the other, the saffron party has maintained complete silence over the peace talks. The Centre's talks with the NSCN (IM) is important for Manipur and its people because it includes the issue of the state's territorial integrity (the Naga outfit's longstanding demand to create a Greater Nagaland includes a vast stretch of Naga-inhabited areas in Manipur).
While the NSCN(IM) and UNC have been repeatedly claiming that the demand for a greater Nagaland has not been given up, serious questions have been raised over the central government's intentions. Why has it not made public the content of the framework of agreement?
Political observers in Manipur believe the silence may be a result of the demand for a greater Nagaland. There are suspicions that the Centre doesn't want Manipur to know about any "compromise" made on the territorial integrity of the state before the upcoming elections.
The BJP may be trying hard to play safe but it's pretty evident that the party lacks complete understanding of the regional complexities. Also, Prime Minister Narendra Modi's haste to declare a breakthrough in peace talks with the Nagas show the BJP may have bitten off more than it can chew.
Simply put, its "Look Northeast" policy has got a new nomenclature — look the other way.
Amid all the half-hearted efforts by the three parties — a confused Centre, an adamant UNC and the highly inefficient Congress government — it's the citizens whose patience is being tested with an election looming.