Tackling the Maoists: Why 2018 may be a deciding year
Few paid attention to Ginugu Narsimha Reddy alias Jampanna (55) when he began working as a technician in Hyderabad. But in the last week of December 2017, when he returned to the city with his 37-year-old wife Hinge Anitha, taking note of his presence was a posse of beaming Telangana policemen and excited journalists. Reddy, after all, had lived his life as a celebrated operative of the outlawed Communist Party of India (CPI) (Maoist). Joining the group in 1984, he started as a dalam commander and grew to the coveted position of a member of the Central Committee (CC) — the outfit's apex decision-making body.
2017, according to the ministry of home affairs (MHA), saw a decline in the instances and intensity of Maoist violence. Recently, home minister Rajnath Singh stated there is an "overall reduction of 21 per cent in violent incidents over the corresponding period of last year".
But that is just one side.
While the number of attacks on security personnel may have reduced, Maoists have been able to carry out more intense attacks leading to increased casualties among security forces. At the same time, they have been able to reduce the number of casualties among their cadres. Data accessed using the Right To Information (RTI) Act 2005 reveals:
Instances of security forces being attacked by Maoists
2016 – 111
2017 – 73
Killing of security force personnel by Maoists
2016 – 65
2017 – 72
Killing of Maoists by security forces
2016 - 222
2017 - 109
Surrenders by Maoist cadre
2014 – 623
2015 – 565
2016 – 1420 (1190 from Chhattisgarh alone)
2017 – 666 (till December 15, 2017)
Yet, as this report in The Hindu claims, nearly 90 per cent of the surrenders out of Chhattisgarh last year were fake.
Violence involving Maoists
2014 – 1091
2015 – 1089
2016 – 1048
2017 (till Nov 30) – 813
In this period, Maoists killed more than 212 security personnel and 616 civilians.
The Maoist movement was born before India became independent and has survived by choosing when and where to fight. So it is hardly a surprise when the MHA notes that the Maoists have made efforts in "Jharkhand, Andhra Pradesh-Odisha border areas" as well as the "establishment of a base at the tri-junction of Kerala-Karnataka-Tamil Nadu, and the formation of a new zone at the tri-junction of Madhya Pradesh-Maharashtra-Chhattisgarh".
In trouble-prone areas, police is often the first and only significant arm of the administration. Yet, instead of achieving the ideal average ratio of one policeman for every 547 citizens, India continues to field one policeman for every 720 citizens.
On ground, most admit that while Maoists can still pull a surprise, there exists better domination and coordination between various governmental agencies. “Instead of camping in villages and seeking food from the locals, Maoists are now camping in jungles and through emissaries are arranging their food since they fear locals will alert us,” said an officer posted in Chhattisgarh’s Sukma district.
In Odisha, “barring the Malkangiri-Nuapada belt, they are nowhere,” said another officer.
Another theme emerging from the ground is the militarisation of Maoist insurgency. “Earlier their People’s Liberation Guerilla Army (PLGA) was a significant component of the Maoist organisation, now, increasingly, it is becoming the only component. This works well for us as we are able to win over the people with sops and facilities,” said a source.
In contrast, in addition to ramping up security, the government is avowedly constructing roads, mobile towers, schools, skill development centres, post offices, banks and ATMs to present its humane face.
The aging leadership and the lack of an effective second-rung in the CPI (Maoist) are bright spots when seen from the government's viewpoint.
Sources point to Jampanna and many before him as a sign of hope: “Several senior Maoist leaders are in touch with their families and through them with the police in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh. We can expect big surrenders in 2018.”
“The average age of their leadership is beyond 55 now. These people began in their 30s and 40s. Health is increasingly a concern for them. If you look at the Maoist hierarchy, they have no next generation to takeover,” said K Durga Prasad, former director general of Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF).
An Indian Police Service (IPS) officer with rich experience in tackling the Maoist menace agreed with Prasad.
What should the approach be in 2018?
"The government should consciously work to prevent another lease of life to the Maoists. Fake surrenders, fake encounters, death of civilians at the hands of security personnel, or large-scale displacement of people is what helps Maoists expand their reach. We have to be careful,” said a source.
India's record on this front is far from inspiring. In his book, Blood Red River, Rohit Prasad quotes from a study on displacement of the native population in India. In it, he states how between 1947 and 2000, nearly 60 million were displaced — of which only one-third have been rehabilitated. Among the displaced, nearly 40 per cent are tribals.
The general election of 2019 aside, states like Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Maharashtra, Odisha, Chhatisgarh and Jharkhand, which are at the heart of the Maoist insurgency, are barely 24 months away from local polls.
As a result, in addition to security-related efforts, political and developmental activities, too, are picking up pace.
In the battle for the heart of India, 2018 is not just another year.