Modi must know change is the only constant

Post-Bihar, the Modi government has two more crises building up that threaten to snowball into a major challenge for PM Modi even as he is preparing to crisscross the world yet again: (I) the now-open rebellion by the sidelined 80-plus BJP veterans and (II) the medal wapsi agitation started by ex-soldiers peeved with the government notification on OROP, in that order.

It is indeed amazing to see how things change so quickly in the Indian political firmament. Modi, the poster boy of the BJP for much of 2013 and 2014, is suddenly being demonised from within and without. The wheel has come full circle for Modi in such a short span after Bihar results.

This brings to mind the famous quote of the Greek philosopher Heraclitus who lived more than 2500 years ago: “ The only thing that is constant is change.”

This is precisely what is happening with Narendra Modi post Bihar. It was inevitable in any case. If you use the logic of science it is clear that whatever goes up has to come down. If you use the cricket analogy it is again clear: the law of averages.

You may be a master batsman or an iconic bowler, but you can't score a century or take a five-for in every inning.

This harsh reality has sprung up and hit Modi in his face – that too on the eve of his upcoming visits to the UK and Turkey.

The open revolt by veterans like LK Advani, Murali Manohar Joshi, Yashwant Sinha and Shanta Kumar – all of whom have been sidelined by Modi as he unilaterally decided the “cut-off” age at 75 years for holding public office – have now hit out at the Modi dispensation.

This is the most serious threat to Modi and may as well pose an existential crisis situation for him. One will have to wait and watch to see what kind of traction their revolt generates within the BJP.

Many BJP discards are likely to board the Advani-Joshi-Sinha bandwagon but the success or failure of their campaign will be marked by just one factor: whether any member of the Modi cabinet will be ready to bite the bullet. All eyes will be on the likes of cabinet ministers Sushma Swaraj, Rajnath Singh and Nitin Gadkari.

If any of these ministers were to profess allegiance to the BJP veterans’ revolt, it would be akin to the Jagjivan Ram moment for Indira Gandhi. If they don't, the veterans rebellion would fizzle out.

But in politics you cannot rule out or rule in anything. Everything is possible in politics, particularly Indian politics. Like Modi, the rest of India too will be keeping their fingers crossed.

An equally explosive developing story for Modi is the medal wapsi agitation by ex-soldiers as more than two thousand of them returned their medals on Tuesday and more than twenty thousand are reported to be waiting to follow suit on the issue of the government's “unjust” notification on One Rank One Pension (OROP).

Two thousand ex-servicemen returning their medals is no ordinary threat for any government but if the number were to go up ten times or twenty times it would be catastrophic.

In the past few weeks, scores of litterateurs, filmmakers, historians and scientists have returned their government awards in protest against the growing intolerance. But the ex-servIcemen’s return of medals would be the mother of all protests which can singe any government. Make no mistake about it.