Why Modi is looking like a loser in Bihar
The biggest challenge Narendra Modi faced in the 2014 parliamentary campaign was from the dramatic performance of Aam Aadmi Party in the Assembly polls in 2013. If Arvind Kejriwal had not committed political hara-kiri, Modi’s final tally would have been lower than what it was. AAP’s politics was beginning to resonate in urban India, the earliest political terrain that came under Modi’s sway. But despite grave threat and risk of a Johnny-come-lately running away with his trophy, Modi did not blink and remained captain cool. No name-calling till the threat remained, he launched into a diatribe – recall the AK-49 barb – only after Kejriwal’s political demise in that round. So why has Modi concluded that he can steal a victory in Bihar only by running a hugely negative campaign? Why is he allowing the campaign to degenerate into a tu tu-main main slugfest straight out from a B-Grade Bollywood film? Why does Modi have so much anger and little sarcasm that was his hallmark in 2014?
In two visits, Modi has scored two self-goals but taken no publicised selfies, so symbolic of his gumption. Make no mistakes people of Bihar are extremely sensitive about non-Biharis passing loose comments about their heritage and culture. He may not have meant it, but by mentioning the fact that there was something wrong in Nitish Kumar’s DNA, he touched a raw nerve. Similarly, though the late demographic, Ashish Bose, may have coined the path-breaking acronym BIMARU; but two decades later, when development and upliftment of people is claimed by all parties and is a major electoral issue, to attach that label in election season is a huge mistake.
Seek support for elections, run down the adversary; but never say anything that may hurt the pride of people. Why has Modi, who once sold the idea of Gujarati Asmita so stunningly, suddenly begun to make mistakes that were the preserve of his opponents once? Two errors down, it is possible that once this poll is over, one may find that several of Modi’s statements are vying with Sonia Gandhi’s Maut ke saudagar barb of 2007 to be listed among the worst campaign statements.
One can discern two campaigns from the BJP stable. One in which Modi is leading the charge with his meetings. Despite erosion in popularity and loss of direction, there is little doubt that Modi still retains his charismatic aura. People flock the grounds where public meetings are scheduled and wait for hours for a glimpse of the man. But while the formula worked in parliamentary polls, in state Assembly elections, everyone knows that Modi will pay fewer visits than he has made to Varanasi in all of 14 months. Modi remains stuck on the negative chord in the campaign here whereas the need is to seek votes on a positive platform. The problem is that while in 2014, Modi had his achievements in Gujarat to showcase; he now has very little to show by way of deliveries at an all-India level.
The other prong of the party campaign is a throwback to the India Shining days when Messrs Pramod Mahajan and Co, felt that winning the media battle was half the job done. In recent days, one can sense a concerted media campaign: several newspapers carrying almost the same details about rath yatras and how Amit Shah is micromanaging the elections. The BJP is past master at knowing that journalists love the detailing. But an election in one of the most rural states cannot be successfully administered by managing a handful of journalists alone.
The Modi campaign is beginning to flounder like the releases of a one-time superstar who last gave a hit many moons ago. He is sounding repetitive and is unable to conjure new tricks.
The question posed to the audience followed by a pause and getting them to respond, was brilliant tactic once. But it now suffers from over-exposure. The quiver in the voice of a Dilip Kumar or a Raj Kumar or even the twinkle in the smile of Rajesh Khanna may have wooed audiences year after year. But in the age of social media and we now have a prime minister in contrast to the one before. While Manmohan Singh never spoke, Modi does not stop. While people hungered for Singh’s word and then gave up, Modi has tired people and his Mann ki Baat is no longer people’s Pasand Ki Baat.
The Bihar polls needed to be fought on the basis of Nitish’s performance versus Modi’s achievements. There is little doubt that underperformance was the dominant theme of the second term of the Bihar chief minister. But because of political developments since his resignation after the Lok Sabha debacle of his party, the focus is on politics and not as much on performance. Since Modi too has little to show, his focus is also to highlight the bad optics of the JD(U)-RJD combine: Jungle Raj et al. And when it comes to politics, Modi will be hamstrung by the absence of strong local flavour. The novelty of Modi had not faded in Maharashtra, Haryana and Jharkhand. Bihar is all altogether a different ball game.
In cricket, out of form batsmen are advised against grasping the bat too tightly. Modi knows that winning Bihar is essential to regain control of the ship now adrift. Instead of exhibiting desperation he must show ease and comfort. He still has time to stage a recovery but will have to accept mistakes made so far. Importantly, he cannot allow his dislike for Nitish Kumar to dictate the contents of his speeches.