Can wooing China prove to be Modi's diplomatic masterstroke?
After Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping concluded their more than an hour-long "walk and talk" at the Wild Goose Pagoda in Xi’an on May 14, the two leaders shook hands before the small group of reporters who had been allowed into one of China’s most famed Buddhist sites to cover what was an unusual meeting. This was the first time Xi had received a foreign leader outside Beijing – one of the many first-time protocol arrangements laid out by the Chinese for Modi. A cabinet-ranked minister was designated to accompany Modi at every event during his three-day stay in Xi’an, Beijing and Shanghai – the first time China has done this for any foreign leader in a decade.
As the two leaders prepared to depart from the pagoda, Modi broke from script: he took hold of Xi’s hand, and led him to a small patch of grass hidden from the gaze of cameras by the drooping foliage of a Bodhi tree. As members of the press were quickly made to leave, the two leaders spoke, unaccompanied by aides and only in the presence of interpreters, for close to five minutes, according to insiders.
By the time Modi flew to Beijing that evening, he had spent more than five hours in the company of China’s most powerful man. That, in itself, was no small achievement. In China, second-ranked premiers are usually tasked with dealing with foreign prime ministers. Manmohan Singh’s engagement with China for over a decade was limited largely to his counterpart Wen Jiabao; audience with former leader Hu Jintao was more often than not restricted to courtesy calls. By striking up an equation with China’s president, starting with hosting him in Gujarat last September, Modi had skilfully skirted a limitation of Chinese protocol by dealing directly with the man in power, who heads not only the Communist Party but more importantly, commands the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).
During the walk at the pagoda, and over hour-long delegation level talks and a formal dinner banquet, Modi had one consistent message for Xi: his government, he said, would be far more ambitious than India was in the past in building a closer economic relationship with China. Chinese investments in India would be welcomed, no longer assumed to be hostile until proven otherwise. "We are willing to expand engagement," Modi told Xi.
This message, however, came with one important caveat: India and China could no longer keep ignoring thorny issues such as that on the boundary. Modi called on China to "reconsider" its position on the boundary and take a "long-term" view of the relationship. In September last year, Modi had similarly called on Xi to take forward the stalled process of clarifying the as-yet-undemarcated Line of Actual Control (LAC). Xi’s visit had been overshadowed by a three-week-long face-off along the LAC. Modi’s argument to Xi – one he repeated in Xi’an – was that with differing claim lines – and continuing ambiguity – the recurrence of incursions and stand-offs remained a likelihood.
"At present, we are second guessing each other," said a senior official. "If clarified, we will minimise incidents". Modi repeated the need for clarifying the LAC the following day when he met Premier Li Keqiang in Beijing. He went further in a speech in Tsinghua University, saying that a "shadow of uncertainty" hung over "sensitive areas" along the boundary "because neither side knows where the LAC is". Both sides could clarify the LAC, he said, "without prejudice to our position on the boundary question".
Modi is attempting to use the promise of closer economic ties as a leverage in getting China to be more open on its immovable position on the boundary and other sources of tension, such as stapled visas for residents of Arunachal Pradesh and projects in Pakistan-occupied-Kashmir (PoK). That much was underlined in Tsinghua University, where, barely a few minutes after his remarks on the boundary issue, Modi announced that India would unilaterally extend e-visas for the Chinese: a decision that took everyone, including Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi, who was in attendance, by complete surprise.
On the economic front, Modi struck the right notes. Meeting with 21 top Chinese CEOs in Shanghai, he told them that he wanted their support for his "Make in India" campaign and he would be "personally responsible" for their investments in India. One leading CEO of a top private firm who was in attendance was so impressed by Modi’s outreach that he committed to travelling to India next month to look into investment opportunities. Indian and Chinese companies signed in Shanghai 21 agreements worth $22 billion, including the setting up of Chinese solar parks and financing for major infrastructure projects. Gao Jifan, CEO of Trina Solar, which signed an agreement to build an industrial park to produce 500 MW of photovoltaic (PV) cells and 500 MW of PV modules, said in an interview that he had "more confidence now than before" to invest in India. On railways, China is moving forward with raising speeds on the Chennai-Bengaluru-Mysuru line from 80 km/h to 160-200 km/h, and going ahead with feasibility studies for the Delhi-Nagpur leg of a proposed Delhi-Chennai bullet train line.
"This is the most ambitious approach we have taken with China on economic issues," says a senior Indian official. The expectation is that "we will also move forward on sources of difference". Whether China will reciprocate that sentiment remains far from clear. China has stonewalled efforts to clarify the LAC since 2005. Back then, India and China exchanged maps with their differing versions of the LAC. Indian officials have said that China quickly withdrew its map. The Chinese side said that it found India’s claims in the western sector in Aksai Chin unrealistic, far beyond what it had expected, and was concerned that the process would impinge on boundary negotiations. This was despite a 1993 agreement that stated explicitly that the LAC did not prejudice both sides' positions on boundary negotiations.
"Modi’s statement for China to take a more proactive approach on the border issue implies that China is resisting the settlement, but it is not true," says Peking University’s Han Hua. "India has not convinced the Chinese that it has been ready to make any adjustment on the dispute, although the two countries reached a consensus on mutual adjustments." Whether Modi has succeeded in changing this belief in Beijing, after his whirlwind three-day visit to the Middle Kingdom, still remains far from clear.