Who says BJP will win 2019 General Elections?
There's an impression in party and political circles, especially in less-informed ones, that the 2019 General Election is a done deal.
Five more years are presumed for the Modi sarkar. With the Congress on the decline and the rest of the opposition in disarray, another term to the NDA, under Modi's leadership, does seem more than likely.
Indeed, there's a scramble among office-seekers to align themselves with the present dispensation to reap calculated returns over the coming eight years.
Complacency
For more well-informed and critical observers, however, such complacency would be foolish, if not fatal.
Yet, few even among them or the multitudes of commentators and pundits that crowd our media space seem to have a clue as to where the next threat to PM Modi will come from.
For a while, the surmise was that a Dalit-Muslim coalition led by Mayawati in Uttar Pradesh might pose it.
Whispers of such a realignment of forces are still making their rounds.
During my recent visit to UP, I got a very different feeling. Mayawati is nowhere on the scene. Despite the ugly feud in the first family, it is Akhilesh Yadav all the way.
People across classes, communities, and religions have taken a liking to their young, squeaky-clean chief minister.
So much that even the battle for the control of the dynasty has only added to his shine. The geriatric generation fathers, uncles and cronies have come out looking bad.
Perhaps, the whole melodrama is scripted and manufactured, allowing Akhilesh to augment his winnability.
 |
| UP CM Akhilesh Yadav. (PTI) |
He alone is the supposedly untainted, dynamic and committed youthful leader; the saviour of India's most populous and most backward state.
The extraction and enforcement department led by the Shivpal Yadav faction, though discredited, will continue to ensure that the party's coffers are full.
After all, both sides need each other and know full well that Yadav versus Yadav, whether at the level of family or constituency, spells disaster.
It'll be Netaji to the rescue, as in the climax of this episode of the family soap opera, with plenty of histrionics and emotional outbursts by the other actors to avert the yadu-vansha-nasha (destruction of the Yadav clan).
The BJP cannot rely on the break-up of the ruling family to bolster its own prospects in UP.
It needs to project a strong and charismatic chief ministerial candidate of its own, announced well in advance, to lead the charge.
Who might this be? Looking far and wide, one scarcely finds anyone suitable. Varun Gandhi might have given a tough fight to Akhilesh.
He is well-educated and gutsy; what is more, he also writes commendable poetry, though the latter hasn't received a fair reading.
The scandal that sought to tarnish his image seems without substance. But he has one major drawback. He is a Gandhi.
The BJP is unlikely to risk a Gandhi at the helm of UP, even the scion of a breakaway faction.
Prospect
Another prospect, which would stand up to Akhilesh, Mayawati, or, for that matter, Priyanka Gandhi, is Smriti Irani.
She has the charisma, stamina, courage and warmth that will attract droves of supporters and voters.
To her disadvantage, though, the former HRD minister and present textiles minister is not from UP, nor does she have a local base.
But she fought valiantly from Amethi against Rahul Gandhi and could fare better at the state than the national level.
The question, however, remains as to whether the RSS-BJP top brass will anoint her and the rank and file line up behind her.
The BJP failed in Bihar not only because it had no credible local leader, but also because apart from Modi, it also lacks star campaigners.
Why not have a bigger team not only of top campaigners but also national leaders? The popular and efficacious Shivraj Singh Chouhan, already three-term chief minister of Madhya Pradesh and five-term Lok Sabha member, would surely be a natural choice.
He is also a brilliant and inspiring speaker, promising his people not just roti, kapda aur makan, but sukh and shanti.
There are half-a-dozen other leaders, if properly promoted or built up, who might reduce Modi's burden of both running the country and campaigning for his party.
Apprehension
A national party should not be afraid of its own success. The apprehension that another tall leader from populous states such as UP or Bihar would jeopardise Narendrabhai's gaddi is erroneous, if not ill-founded.
The BJP needs leaders with mass-appeal and local support base, as well as able administrators, strategic thinkers, and competent technocrats.
To keep its hold on the hearts and minds of Indians, the BJP should project itself as a vibrant and functioning meritocracy, albeit with the same, strict party discipline applicable to all.
In the meanwhile, Akhilesh cannot be written off as serious challenge for Modi. As his popularity and prospects for a second term as the UP chief minister increase, it is he who is likely to emerge as the rallying point for the opposition.
If he wins again, not just Didi and Amma, but also Naveen, Nitish and others may ally with him. The only doubtful prospects are Arvind Kejriwal, whose megalomania would stand in the way, and Rahul Gandhi, totally eclipsed in such a coalition. Nevertheless, the ensuing Third Front, if formed, might pose a threat to the present Delhi Durbar.
Politics is dogged with uncertainty. Even the most seasoned know that nothing is assured; taking one's electorate, especially in India, for granted is a sure recipe for disaster.
The smart people in the ruling party must be thinking through these and multiple other possibilities on a continuous basis even if their calculations and conclusions are under wraps as of now.
(Courtesy of Mail Today.)