If demonetisation is a success, you wouldn't dare to call Modi a dictator
The winds of change sweeping across mature democracies trend the ascent of democratically elected leaders who rule with absolutism, making the imperfections of fractured mandates appear fairer and more representative of the voice of the people.
Destiny
Elections cast the destiny of nations; so it was when the desperation of the underclass in the US and India chose to elect "outsiders" into power.
If it's Trump in America, it could well be Ambani as PM for India! Except that Indians don't like their leaders to be rich, forget voting a capitalist czar as head of state.
In the wave of "new normalcy" that afflicts since the eve of 9/11, we live through twin perils of one leader who near-nationalised public funds that temporarily shrunk the internal Indian economy; while Trump's intent to de-globalise the US could shrink global trade for an indefinite period.
Reminiscent of the revocation of Privy Purses in 1971, this time the privileged in India felt the sting as much as the proletariat, in the infringement of citizens' financial rights usurped by the State.
Worse than revoking freedom of expression was curtailing people's right to access their own hard-earned wages, as man may live without speech but not without bread.
Overnight, an entire nation was under surveillance by a government mistrustful of all except its ilk, without a word of admonishment to rein in its terrorising tax-officials.
From exploiting avenues of Naga tribals' tax exemption status, to Jan Dhan accounts to launder money; it would be political naiveté not to credit the entrepreneurial ingenuity of Indians to game the system they lived with for 70 years.
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| US President-elect Donald Trump. (Photo credit: Reuters) |
Two continents away, the ascent of Donald Trump sets a new normal to reign from the opulence of Trump Towers with gold-plated decor and conduct presidential business at pleasure from the private greens of his Golf Course instead of the White House.
Of course, the conflict of interests that will ensue will be the next new normal, as never before has a democratic state opted for a capitalist head of state.
Sooner we shock-proof ourselves to new styles of governance, the easier it is to comprehend democratically-elected dictators, as Trump readies to reset the rules of open economies by snubbing out America's "minority", its migrants, and catering to America for Americans, his Hindutva equivalent of reinstating nationalist pride.
Contracting global trade will grind-down an already worsening supply-chain within India, as a forced recession is projected to shave off close to two per cent of GDP, the first casualty being the reality sector which braces for a sub-prime level crisis.
De-globalisation (DeGlo) and demonetisation (DeMo) carry grave psychological shocks, as both leaders turn economically experimental. Unprecedented events have few empirical referrals to foretell the future, as "democratic dictators" are free to implement at will.
While it took three parliamentary sessions for GST to become an act, DeMo was imposed with swiftness in a period of high-growth which only ravaged economies like Germany after WWII or Russia after its break-up resorted to during stressed economic cycles.
Sentiments
The high moral ground of eradicating black money creates new categories of detractors and conformists: the "desh drohis" versus the virtuous; forms new vote banks polarised by its gainers and losers; and births new political realignments within the Opposition as to who will be Modi's ultimate challenger for 2019.
Receding sentiments of the promised "achhe din" now seem a broken tryst, or a deferred one at best. Modi can renew his pledge only should the gains of his political and economic adventurism bear fruit closer to 2019.
"Game changer" or "vote loser", only time will tell, as collective amnesia can be short-lived if Modi bestows his largesse by transferring even a token of the Rs 15 lakh he promised into Jan Dhan accounts, and ensuring his place as twice-elected PM.
How much of the extinguished stock of black money of Rs 14 lakh crore re-enters the formal economy will determine the success of remonetisation.
Whether DeMo is bad economics, the UP elections might not be the mid-term referendum. After all, public ire will be a recent memory, and DeMo needs a gestation period of at least two years for economic dividends to pay off.
Outreach
Where Team Modi failed was to have drawn out an aggressive outreach through an ad-blitz in formal and offline media, parallel to the rude shock, showing the light at the end of the tunnel.
Instead, information dissemination was ambiguous, and the presumptive gains of leap-frogging to the most modern, digitised form of commerce was barely understood by a populace that is 50 per cent under-banked and where teledensity is still under-penetrated.
A blitz needed to highlight the scope for lowering taxes due to increased compliance or the proposed Banking Transaction Tax in lieu of income tax; decreased inflation; or of how enhanced revenues would mean better roads, healthcare, education and housing for all.
Instead, the ghost of retrospective taxation and tax-terror spooked yet again, with no hint of ending promissory notes used to round-trip flushed out money; nor a holistic approach vis-à-vis electoral reforms.
Let the computer decide, and not the ITO, which returns are to be scrutinised and implement justice Srikrishna's Indian Financial Code to curb administrative discretion.
Make this change, and the country will revere Modi as God and not fear him as dictator for centuries to come.
(Courtesy of Mail Today.)