Why did Modi chuck Rajnath, Parrikar out of Pakistan policy-making?
India’s top political leadership is once again at odds with each other, with home minister Rajnath Singh and defence minister Manohar Parrikar questioning Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s decision to allow a Pakistani special investigation team (SIT) to come to the Pathankot airbase to look at the evidence left behind by the Pakistani terrorists who mounted the attack.
Over the last few days, both Parrikar and Rajnath – the latter speaking through “official sources” – have said that no Pakistani can visit the airbase, that “no one is coming”.
But the fact of the matter is that both Parrikar and Rajnath were not part of a meeting called by the prime minister last week in which the decision to invite the Pakistani SIT was taken. Those present at the prime minister’s meeting included external affairs minister Sushma Swaraj, national security advisor Ajit Doval and foreign secretary S Jaishankar.
None other than the prime minister took the decision that the Pakistani probe team would be allowed to come to India and, indeed, visit the Pathankot airbase.
According to official sources, the Pakistani team would be shown the tree which the terrorists allegedly used to get into the base, the breach in the perimeter wall and the shed in which they spent 24 hours or so, eating a meal and sleeping there the night before they mounted the attack.
The question is, why are the government’s two senior-most ministers now questioning the government’s decision to invite the Pakistani SIT?
In the wake of the meeting led by the prime minister, MEA spokesperson Vikas Swarup said, “We look forward to the visit of Pakistan SIT and our investigative agencies will extend all necessary cooperation."
The fact of the matter is that the prime minister has, once again, forgotten to take along his top political colleagues in such a sensitive national security matter. Rajnath made his displeasure known through sources, while Parrikar spoke openly to the media in Jaipur.
The prime minister’s decision to invite the Pakistani team is totally contrary to past Indian reactions to an attack from Pakistan and indeed, much closer to the Western point of view which believes that as the larger country and for the sake of subcontinental peace, India should continue to reach out to Pakistan, even if it must incur “some pain” in the bargain.
Interestingly, Sushma, who has been almost completely marginalised by the prime minister's office (PMO) these past many months, seems to be back in the reckoning. She has been attending the various meetings called by the prime minister on Pakistan, which have taken place in the wake of her participation in the Heart of Asia dialogue in Islamabad.
Certainly, the absence of both Rajnath and Parrikar in the prime minister’s top-level meeting also reiterates the primacy of Doval in national security policy-making. Doval was the one who called the shots when the airbase was attacked and allegedly sent the National Security Guard (NSG) to deal with the attack.
Doval continues to be in regular contact with his Pakistani counterpart Nasir Janjua, whom he has been pressing to take action against the perpetrators, the terrorist outfit Jaish-e-Mohammed and its chief Masood Azhar.
According to Pakistani press reports, Azhar has been detained in "protective custody", but not charged or arrested. Some analysts say that it will be far easier for the Pakistani establishment to keep the Jaish chief under house arrest than the chief of the Lashkar-e-Taiba Hafiz Saeed, said to be the mastermind of the November 26, 2008 Mumbai attacks.
Today’s spirit of apparent cooperation between India and Pakistan in the wake of the Pathankot attack is a far cry from previous incidents when both sides have much more readily indulged in name-calling and open criticism of each other. The Pakistani press has also noted India’s “restraint”, and certainly hopes it will continue. The fact that India has not called off the talks, as happened after the Mumbai attacks, also means the Indian response has not been reflexively negative.
The Indian aim, goes the reasoning, is to put the onus on the Pakistani establishment – not only Nawaz Sharif but also the military establishment through Janjua – and not only to persuade Pakistan to deliver on Pathankot, but also change its behaviour, over the long-term, with India.
Modi clearly hopes that if Pakistan takes action against the Pathankot attackers, it might help in erasing the trauma of Mumbai. Clearly, Modi has picked and chosen his A-team to deal with Pakistan.
Unfortunately, that doesn’t include either his defence or his home minister.