How Modi's robust foreign policy peaked in 2015
As the year 2015 comes to an end, the Modi government has sprung another surprise with its outreach to Pakistan. The larger trajectory of India's foreign policy remains proactive with an effective team helmed by the prime minister himself. India is projecting a much more robust profile on the global stage than it was managing to do in the past decade. It is the new leadership that has made all the difference.
The Indian government's biggest success in the realm of foreign policy and national security has been its ability to keep interlocutors on tenterhooks. The unpredictability of a nation whose responses had become all too easy to predict over the last few decades, is generating a new sense of expectation.
From Pakistan to the US, from Africa to the ASEAN, there is now an expectation that the new dispensation in New Delhi means business. This sense of drive and purpose is what India had been lacking in the recent past.
Economics
The bedrock of a nation's strength in contemporary global politics remains its economics. By putting the Indian story back into reckoning after callous mismanagement by its predecessors, the Modi government has shored up India's rapidly dwindling credibility.
The fact that it has been able to do it despite an obstructionist opposition is even more remarkable. For all the disruption of Parliament by the Congress, the image of a business-minded Modi government remains intact for the outside world. And that is a tribute to the foreign policy management by the government and the energy and vigour with which the prime minister and his team led by Sushma Swaraj have conducted external affairs. In fact, it is the image of the Congress that is getting a beating abroad with a perception gaining ground that a desperate party is looking for desperate measures to shore up its identity as a political entity of any meaning.
Another success of the Modi government has been a careful nurturing of major power relations and a deft management of an ever shifting global and regional balance of power in Asia and beyond.
The US today is looking for its new leader. The Obama administration is already pulling back but there is no clear leader as of yet. Hillary Clinton is the most likely nominee of the Democratic Party and the Republicans are still searching for one. This means that there is a political vacuum in Washington which is being exploited by the challengers such as China and Russia with their supposedly strong leaders. In this milieu, the Modi government has managed to carve out a robust relationship with the US even as it has stabilised ties with Beijing and Moscow.
Diplomacy
It is not going to be easy as Russia's growing closeness to China will have serious implications for India, but India has so far been successful in conveying its concerns to all three major powers with a degree of confidence which was absent in the past. India's engagement with Europe is now more forward looking and devoid of the unnecessary rhetoric of perpetual inferiority. There is a clear message going out that India will act on its own terms and conditions and can skilfully play the role of a balancer.
The Modi government's regional outreach has also made a difference in this regard. In its own vicinity in the India-Pacific, India is now perceived as a credible balancer at a time when China's maritime assertiveness has created space for Indian diplomacy. This was made possible by New Delhi's outreach to like-minded states in the region such as Japan, Australia, Vietnam, Singapore, Philippines and Malaysia.
Gone is the diffidence of the past when India used to walk on eggshells for fear of offending China. The Modi government wants to enhance its footprint in Africa, Latin America and the Middle East to underscore the distinct advantages that India possesses in comparison to China's more mercantilist approach. The focus is now on delivery of commitments that India has made, an aspect where India lags behind China and other major powers.
It is in South Asia that the Modi government has been facing some criticism over the last few months with turmoils in India-Nepal and India-Pakistan ties. But even in a region as mired in historical grievances as South Asia, India has managed to traverse considerable ground.
India's ties with Bangladesh today are the best they have had in the last two decades. Delhi has done well by showing magnanimity in resolving its long-pending disputes with Dhaka. Relations with Sri Lanka are also on an upward trajectory under the Sirisena government.
Afghanistan has also recognised the folly of ignoring Indian concerns and the two nations are now joining hands in exposing Pakistani military's machinations. Delhi is also enhancing its security role in Kabul at the invitation of the Ghani government.
Success
Nepal remains a problem, largely because the political elites there have not managed to reconcile internal differences.
India remains an easy target to channel domestic grievances but a perception has gained ground about Indian interference. There are signs that some sort of reconciliation is beginning to shape up. But New Delhi should be wary of playing an overt role in Nepal and let domestic constituencies resolve their agenda.
The Modi government is ending the year on a high note. After carefully working throughout the year to isolate Pakistani military globally as the epicentre of terror, Delhi is now reaching out to the civilian government in Islamabad to ensure that those constituencies which want a long-term regional solution get strengthened.
India today stands on the cusp of a major transformation and its leadership will have to remain relevant to these changing times. Eventually, the Modi government's success will be assessed at the end of its five-year-term in 2019 but at the end of 18 months, it is clear that this government is ready to discard old shibboleths.