OPS revolts against Sasikala: 4 scenarios Tamil Nadu can expect

The big split is staring us in the face.

AIADMK, having just crowned VK Sasikala as the chief of the legislature party and the CM-designate after O Panneerselvam tendered his resignation (which he has now claimed was forced from him), is now poised for a bifurcation. OPS in a rare show of aggression and strategic belligerence has decided to up the ante even further and reveal how the late Jayalalithaa's health was compromised.

However, what started from Marina Beach at Jaya's memorial, where OPS "meditated" for almost 40 minutes before addressing the media and saying he had been humiliated by Sasikala, and he would like to continue Amma's legacy, also had strings pulled from Delhi. BJP-ruled Centre has made not one but several indications through its MPs and leaders that it would prefer OPS over Sasikala, against whom the DA case in Supreme Court hangs like Damocles' sword.

As Paneerselvam told the local media just a short while back that he'd prove majority in the floor of the House and would also have a court-monitored investigation into Jaya's death, the battle has only intensified, also increasing the level of confusion among the public.

Here are four scenarios that might pan out in the days to come:

1. Status quo until SC verdict

With OPS' claim that he'd have a proper investigation into Jaya's death, more questions have been raised against Sasikala's leadership. The controversies have been given a fresh lease of life, and there will speculation both in social and traditional media about Sasikala's direct or indirect role in it. Besmirched further, and challenged in what she hadn't expected, Sasikala would focus on hitting back, but would be unable to ensure that the swearing-in actually takes place.

It is likely that the unrest will be allowed to pan out - both by the Centre and the state parties - until the SC verdict on the disproportionate assets case, in which Sasikala is a co-accused, comes out in a week. Justices are expected to announce their judgment in roughly a week's time, and even though Sasikala has shown an uncanny haste in preponing the swearing-in and formally taking the office of Tamil Nadu chief minister, governor Vidyasagar Rao is unlikely to oblige.

2. Floor test with DMK's support

Though VK Sasikala says she has the AIADMK MLAs firmly under her thumb - about 130 of them - the revelations might send a flurry of MLAs back to OPS' camp, as they couldn't be seen backing openly the very woman whose role in Amma's death is now under scanner.

However, the more likely scenario would be that in the eventuality of a floor test, OPS has been assured of DMK's support, from none other than MK Stalin himself, as well as from other leaders of the opposition party. OPS has the support of Jaya's niece, Deepa, as well as of the Centre, which wants a "malleable" chief minister in the big southern test.

However, if Sasikala continues to command 130 MLAs, the floor test would go in her favour, resulting in a significantly strengthened position in legislature. If cleared by the SC in the DA case, the governor would be left with no option but to swear her in.

3. President's Rule

There's also the possibility of the constitutional logjam - created by OPS' resignation, coerced or not - that might make him ineligible to directly participate in a floor test. If the situation continues to be volatile, there might be no option but for the governor to dissolve the Tamil Nadu Assembly and impose President's Rule in the state until things are back in control.

Given the tumult Tamil Nadu has been through, a violent uprising cannot be ruled out. The political revolt that started with OPS praying at Jaya's samadhi, might metamorphose into a bloody and ugly fight that could engulf not just the wrangling factions led by Chinnamma and OPS respectively, but also cadres and general populace of Tamil Nadu.

In order to prevent the situation from getting out if hand, a preemptive emergency might be the only solution. However, that would embolden the BJP-led Centre to have negotiations with the MLAs both from the AUADMK as well as the DMK, and also allow the parties and leaders to reorganise popular support and make way for fresh elections.

4. Fresh elections

This would be the final and most distant - though certainly the most impartial - solution to the current stalemate. Whether it comes to a new round of elections at all, and whether a split AIADMK can win a mandate again, simply facilitate DMK swinging to power, is something that we have to wait and watch.

But that is likely to push the final nail in Sasikala's political coffin, as it were.

Also read: How OPS stood up to Sasikala and changed the Tamil Nadu narrative

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