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Can Rahul Gandhi do an Indira to change Congress' fate in 2019 Lok Sabha polls?

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Omkar Poojari
Omkar PoojariApr 07, 2018 | 15:14

Can Rahul Gandhi do an Indira to change Congress' fate in 2019 Lok Sabha polls?

The year was 1977. It was the Indira Gandhi-led Congress’s annus horribilis. The Jayaprakash Narayan-led “Sampoorn Kranti” movement created a storm that decimated and drove the Congress party out of power for the first time in 1977. Most people had suspected that the Congress might just lose. But the quantum of defeat was an absolute shocker.

The Congress won a measly 154 seats and Indira Gandhi was defeated by Raj Narain in Rae Bareli, this time fare and square. The unimaginable had happened and the queen had been beaten by the clown. This was the time when Indira Gandhi and her Congress party had been written off by the political pundits. 1977 was the year when Indira Gandhi reached the nadir in politics.

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Image: PTI photo

Six months after the colossal defeat, Indira Gandhi found herself in a godforsaken, nondescript village named Belchi in Bihar, where 11 Dalits had been shot and then burnt alive one by one. It was March of 1977 and the Janata Party government had just come to power with a massive mandate and humongous expectations. 

Although the gruesome Belchi massacre had sent shockwaves across the nation, no minister of the newly elected Janata party government at the Centre or the Bihar government had shown any sympathy by visiting the victims and they were too busy celebrating their win and pursuing their politics of vengeance and vendetta against Indira and Sanjay.

This was the time when the Congress was for the first time ever described as a sinking ship. Indira Gandhi found herself on a sticky wicket. She was still reeling under public wrath after subjecting the nation to 18 months of coercive Emergency. She had lost the 1977 general election in a humiliating manner, her own partymen had mounted a rebellion against her and, to make matters worse, the Shah Commission was set up by the Morarji government to settle scores with her and to inquire corruption charges against her with an imminent arrest on the cards. 

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It was under such extremely precarious circumstances with the odds heavily stacked against her that Indira Gandhi decided to visit Belchi which turned out to be her moment of political redemption. Even before the Janata Party government could react, Indira travelled by train, jeep and tractor, through mud, slush and floods and even on an elephant back to reach Belchi.

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Image: PTI photo

The demoralised and frightened villagers greeted her as a long lost daughter and a liberator. There were no black flags. No hostile mobs. Not even a single anti-Indira slogan. It seemed as if the people had forgiven her for the excesses and atrocities of the Emergency. The villagers cheered her and raised slogans like: “Aadhi roti khayeigein, Indira ko bulaingein (we will live on half rotis, but will bring Indira back).” And "Indira tere abhao men Harijan mare jate hain" (Indira, in your absence, Harijans are being killed). It was hard to believe that she was the same Indira Gandhi who had been mercilessly beaten at the polls only six months back.

Indira Gandhi returned from Belchi as a more confident politician with immense self-belief that she could still stage a comeback. The rest as they say is history. The tide had turned and the Congress resurrected making a spectacular comeback in the 1980 general elections.

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It is said that history has a tendency to repeat itself and one can find uncanny similarities between the situation of the Congress after 1977 rout and its situation today.

Today, Rahul Gandhi's Congress finds itself in a similar position as Indira's Congress was decades back: an election rout, corruption and graft allegations, questions raised on his style of functioning and leadership, the tussle for power within the party, among several other things.

Almost four decades after its first-ever election defeat, the Congress today faces the danger of being consigned to the dustbin of history. The grand old party has been decimated to a paltry tally of 48 seats in the Lok Sabha and it is in power in only four states. What is even more scary is that "Congress-mukt Bharat" has become a buzzword for political discourse in the country.

People who have penned down obituaries of the Congress opine that the decline is an irreversible process and its death is almost certain. However, there are those who believe that this is another lean phase for the party and it will be back to its winning ways.

I was in an environmental studies class in college and the teacher asked the class to provide some examples of "disasters". Some mischievous back-bencher whooped and replied, “Rahul Gandhi”. And the whole class of some 120-odd 17-18-year-olds burst into laughter. This was after Rahul’s Twitter witticisms had created headlines and the media was busy showing changing public perception about him.

However, the ground reality is that Rahul is still considered to be "pappu", a diffident dilettante and a reluctant politician. Rahul needs to change this perception. A modern-day political party can’t afford such a sharply negative public perception of its leader as it will only spoil its electoral fortunes. Indira was derided as "goongi gudiya", Rahul is lampooned as "pappu". Rahul needs to reflect on how Indira went from being mocked as "goongi gudiya" to being hailed as "Durga".

If Indira could reinvent herself, rebrand and rejuvenate the Congress after its 1977 debacle and emerge as the undisputed leader of her party, can Rahul also revive the party’s prospects and more importantly how?

Disenchantment is there but can Rahul do a 1980 in 2019? But Rahul Gandhi is no Indira Gandhi. And Narendra Modi is no Morarji Desai. The BJP under the Modi-Shah duo is not a mashup of disparate elements which the Janata Party under Chandra Shekhar was. But if Rahul tries to match Indira’s zeal to fight and stage a comeback, he would surely boost his party’s morale and chances in 2019.

The BJP will come out all guns blazing in 2019 and use every weapon in its ammunition to repeat its 2014 success while the Congress under Rahul will try do what Indira did in 1980.

Will 2019 be another 2014 or another 1980?

Only time will tell us that. But we need to remember the old saying of the jungle, “No two elections in India are the same!”

Postscript: Indira Gandhi in 1980 overcame the challenges from Morarji Desai - a politician from Gujarat. Incidentally, 38 years later, Rahul Gandhi also faces a mammoth political challenge from another politician from Gujarat - Narendra Modi.  

 

Last updated: May 15, 2018 | 17:56
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