How BJP becoming largest party in Rajya Sabha will impact national polity
For the first time in the history of Indian Parliament, the BJP has exactly the same number of seats in the Rajya Sabha as the Congress - 57.
By July this year, things will further brighten up for the BJP when the ruling party at the Centre - which also has governments in 19 of the 29 states - will boost its Rajya Sabha tally by 13 seats, and the Congress's strength in the upper house will decline by 10 seats. This means that by July, the likely Rajya Sabha tally for the BJP and the Congress would be 70 and 47 respectively.
The resurgent BJP under Narendra Modi and Amit Shah is all set to be way ahead of the Congress in the Rajya Sabha for the first time ever in parliamentary history. However, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will have to wait until 2020 for complete majority in the 245-member upper house, and that too, if the BJP continues to perform electorally the way it has been doing since the advent of the Modi government on May 26, 2014.
Here is the current party-wise position in the Rajya Sabha as on today (January 6) as per Rajya Sabha's official records which can be accessed here.
The BJP has never had it so good when it comes to the numbers game in the Rajya Sabha. The party has traditionally been a minority in the Rajya Sabha. But the EWM (election winning machine) of the Modi-Shah combine has changed everything. Not just the parliamentary picture, but the larger national politics scenario is also likely to undergo a sea change with the rise of BJP seats in the Rajya Sabha. Here's how.
Political Demoralisation of Opposition
The BJP outnumbering the Congress in the Rajya Sabha and emerging as way ahead of all other parties in the House would demoralise the Opposition which is not the case at present. A classic example is that of the triple talaq bill. The Opposition couldn’t do much about it in the Lok Sabha in view of the BJP’s massive majority, but successfully stalled the bill in the Rajya Sabha. Further, BJP’s allies Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and Shiv Sena broke away from the BJP on this issue and sided with the Congress.
It’s another matter that both the regional parties have their own reasons for this: TDP needing the Muslim vote bank and Shiv Sena trying to align with the Congress by ousting Sharad Pawar's Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) from the Congress camp and the likely pre-2019 political realignment scenario of Shiv Sena allying with the Congress and NCP allying with the BJP.
However, in the post-July scenario, the Opposition would be too demoralised to repeat its triple talaq "feat" in the Rajya Sabha then.
Ordinance route no longer required
The ascendancy of the BJP in the Rajya Sabha would mean that the Modi government would have much better political leverage in passing bills. It won’t have to take the ordinance route for passing bills as it had done many times in the past. Moreover, the government won’t have to pass bills important from its viewpoint under the garb of money bills as it had been doing rather routinely.
The Modi government had drawn scathing criticism from the Opposition on both these points. The government won’t need this kind of choreography any more once the BJP emerges as the largest party in the Rajya Sabha.
To benefit BJP on smaller issues like Article 35A
Winning the numbers game in the Rajya Sabha would also benefit the BJP on smaller issues, including Article 35A, which are part of the government agenda, but the party was unable to get the necessary legislation passed in Parliament because of its minority status in the Rajya Sabha. The Nehru government had introduced Article 35A in the Constitution through a presidential order in 1954. It gives special rights to the "permanent residents" of the state and empowers the state legislature to define permanent residents and then give them special treatment, privileges and rights. This has been challenged in the Supreme Court by an NGO, We The People, and that’s where the issue rests currently.
However, with the changed political arithmetic in the Rajya Sabha, the Modi government would be in a position to strike off such legislations, and the NGO shouldn’t have any problems in withdrawing its PIL from the Supreme Court if its prayer is being met by the executive through Parliament.
BJP will have to wait for big moves
However, the BJP will have to wait for many years for pushing its big agenda points such as the Uniform Civil Code, scrapping of Article 370 and holding simultaneous polls for Lok Sabha and all state assemblies. The reason is that these goals can be met only by amending the Constitution for which the government requires two-thirds majority in both Houses of Parliament and ratification by assemblies of at least 15 states of the Indian Union.
The BJP is far distant from having two-thirds majority in the Rajya Sabha, though it can easily meet the two other mandatory requirements. This will be the BJP’s agenda, but only after it wins the 2019 polls. Moreover, these kind of sweeping changes can only be ushered in if India adopts the presidential system of governance.
Modi will definitely be eyeing that provided he wins the 2019 General Elections even more emphatically. But that’s a different story.