From Ufa to uff: How Modi sarkar is weakening India in front of Pakistan
It may seem that the Narendra Modi government is confused about its Pakistan policy. It is more likely that the policy is to deliberately not have a policy. It seems that India doesn't really want to have serious talks with Pakistan, and the Ufa joint statement was a charade under international pressure.
Until the meeting in Ufa, it seemed that the Modi government was trying to ignore and isolate Pakistan. There was talk of "SAARC minus one". Yet India realised it is not so easy to isolate Pakistan. China's building an economic corridor there, and the world is engaging with Pakistan to make sure there's peace in Afghanistan.
The international community, particularly the United States, thought that Modi's disengagement with Pakistan was cause for alarm. With rising military tensions on the LoC and even the international border, there was talk of war. This was the background to Ufa.
It needs to be remembered that India asked Pakistan for a meeting in Ufa. It should also not be forgotten that the Ufa joint statement referred to resolving "all outstanding issues" with Pakistan. Just because the K-word wasn't mentioned, wasn't any indication that Pakistan was giving up on the Kashmir issue.
One would have expected that after a meeting of the heads of government in Ufa, there would have been de-escalation of tension. Instead, we have since then seen a rise in tensions on the border, and even a terrorist attack in Gurdaspur. It is strange that despite rising tensions, India and Pakistan both don't seem to be very interested in serious, long-term bilateral negotiations.
The Narendra Modi government is being delusional by pretending as if India is doing a favour to Pakistan by talking to them. Pakistani terrorists perpetrate terror attacks on Indian soil. India can't reciprocate that because we don't have factories of suicide bombers, and thank god for that. India can't answer terrorism with war either. For all the talk of "surgical strikes", truth is that Pakistan has nuclear weapons. The international community would also not support Modi if India takes military action against Pakistan, rather than diplomatic negotiations.
It is important to note that the ministry of external affairs didn't even summon the Pakistani high commissioner for the Gurdaspur attack, even as the government blamed the attack on Pakistan. Neither were the NSA talks cancelled. Previous governments would have gone on a diplomatic offensive against Pakistan over an attack like Gurdaspur. But the Modi government limited its response to the media. Is the Modi government trying to say we can handle some terrorism, no problem? That is a bad strategy, too, because it raises the bar for terrorist elements on the other side and might make them increase the scale and frequency of attacks. It is important to note that the Gurudaspur attack wasn't in Kashmir, the usual place for such attacks. It was in Indian Punjab, clearly aimed at sending the message of what the other side is capable of.
Lastly, the Ufa joint statement has been presented by the government at home as being mainly about terrorism. It is simply not sustainable for the Indian government to pretend that Kashmir isn't an issue between the two countries. If Kashmir is not an issue, why is the Indian government so riled up every time Pakistani officials meet Hurriyat leaders?
There is only one meaningful way of resolving the conflict with Pakistan, and that is to solve the Kashmir problem. If Kashmir is not a problem, as many Indians like to pretend, then what are we doing about Pakistan-occupied Kashmir? And what are we going to say whenever there is another 2010-like internal uprising in Kashmir?
The reason why Pakistan does terrorism is Kashmir. By saying we won't talk Kashmir, India is giving Pakistan the excuse to heighten terrorism. Is this a policy in strategic self-interest?
The Modi government is hurting India's own strategic self-interest, and increasing its exposure to terrorism, by not talking to Pakistan. India can't equal Pakistan on terrorism, but it can equal Pakistan in diplomatic engagement. This is not to say that India should become hostage to the Kashmir issue, or let itself be blackmailed by terror strikes. This is why the composite dialogue between India and Pakistan was a way out. It discussed all issues together, at the same time. Just as we do with China. But the Modi government has abandoned the composite dialogue.
Diplomacy is war by other means, but some people would rather have a real war.