How the Amarnath Yatra terror attack will affect India in days to come
The terror attack on Amarnath Yatra in Jammu and Kashmir late July 10, is no ordinary event. Let's not assume it will evoke an ordinary response from India. It’s an extraordinary development and it will inevitably trigger an extraordinary response on all possible fronts: political, security, strategic and foreign policy to name a few.
Here is a check-list of domains where the echoes and counter echoes of this dastardly terror attack will reverbate for a long time. First, let us take up the foreign policy-related issues.
India-Pakistan:
How further down can bilateral relations between India and Pakistan plummet? That’s a pertinent question as the two nuclear-powered South Asian rivals have already reached the nadir of their bilateral relations. This incident will only push their bilateral relationship in the minus category, if it's not already there. Considering initial reports that it was a joint operation of Lashkar-e-Taiba and Hizbul Mujahideen – the two terror outfits are not known to work together often – Indian reprisal is a question of when not if.
Will it mean yet another surgical strike? Well, a surgical strike against Pakistan-based terror outfits seems a high probability, whether overt or covert; but what remains to be seen is what will be the scope, scale, force and magnitude of such a punitive strike. For sure, the Line of Control will become a live wire in the next few days, but one will have to wait and watch for four of the five Ws: what, when, where and how as the fifth W "why" doesn’t bag an answer. This will obviously negatively impact whatever little is left of India-Pakistan bilateral relations.
India-China:
The terror attack on Amarnath Yatra will cast a shadow on India-China bilateral relations too as it comes too close to voices of utter lunacy emanating from the Chinese media. Significantly, just a day before the Chinese media had brought Pakistan and Kashmir into their narrative for the first time with this incendiary remark by way of a commentary published in Global Times:
“Even if India were requested to defend Bhutan's territory, this could only be limited to its established territory, not the disputed area... Otherwise, under India's logic, if the Pakistani government requests, a third country's Army can enter the area disputed by India and Pakistan.”
True, the Chinese media can’t be taken as dictating policies of the Chinese government even if the entire Chinese media is state-controlled. Moreover, a terror attack of this scale and magnitude would necessarily require weeks of planning and preparation. Yet, India will be more suspicious of China on this front than ever before.
Intelligence and Security:
It is not the first time when Amarnath yatris were made the fodder by terrorists as the worst such attack had taken place 17 years ago during the Vajpayee government when terrorists had killed 30 pilgrims. But this is the first such attack during the three-year-old Modi government. It’s indicative of a completely frozen intelligence. And obviously the intelligence gets frozen when the government of the day becomes alienated from the masses and is not performing.
Political:
This terror attack also shows the extent of non-performance of the Jammu and Kashmir government and total non-functioning of PDP-BJP alliance. It may put immense pressure on the alliance and push the Modi government towards terminating this alliance and impose Central rule in the state. Though putting the state under Governor’s rule will be nothing short of a self goal as it would be an admission of its political failure, the Modi government is fast running out of options.