How Nirav Modi swindling Punjab National Bank of Rs 11,000cr will impact Modi government
Even the most hardcore among the Narendra Modi loyalists cannot say that the Punjab National Bank (PNB) fraud worth $1.77 billion (approx Rs 11,360 crore) hasn't negatively impacted the image of the Modi government, irrespective of whether the largest banking fraud in Indian history predated the Modi era or whether the Modi government is reaping the harvest of what was originally sown by the UPA government.
For the common man what matters is that this mega scam has tumbled out of the closet during the Modi government. Therefore, this development will inevitably have some kind of negative impact. The million dollar question is whether the Modi government will bear political losses or will the Opposition reap some political benefits from this development?
Well, the answer is in the womb of time and will be known upfront on March 3 when the results of Tripura assembly polls are out. Yes, the results of Nagaland and Meghalaya Assembly polls too will be out on that day but the BJP doesn't have much electoral presence of its own in these two northeastern states.
Tripura results should serve as the answer, politically speaking, as the top leadership of the BJP is actively involved in these elections, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself. Ground reports suggest the BJP was well poised to give the CPM-ruled government of chief minister Manik Sarkar a run for its money. The BJP was seen as a serious contender with the potential to emerge victorious in the Tripura elections and end the 20-year-old rule of the Manik Sarkar government. But this was before the PNB fraud flew into the face of the BJP government at the Centre.
PM Modi is adept at coining political catchphrases and words during election campaigns which have invariably cost the Opposition dear. Who can, for instance, forget his Diwali-Ramzan and Shamshaan-Kabristan remarks in the middle of Uttar Pradesh elections which eventually pulled the carpet from under the feet of the Opposition and installed a BJP government with an unprecedented majority in India's most populous and electorally the biggest state - and that too a crucial swing state?
PM Modi came up with a similar clever remark during Tripura election campaigning when he said this at a public rally: "It is as if an astrologer has given you a Manik (gemstone) to wear and it has turned out to be the wrong Manik (read chief minister Manik Sarkar). So while the country developed, achhe din never came to Tripura. It is time to take off the wrong Manik and instead I offer you a HIRA - Highways, I-ways, Railways and Airways."
He made this remark at an election rally in Sonamura, Tripura on February 9. Little did he realise that a crowning irony was waiting to happen with "Hira" (diamond) trader Nirav Modi rocking his boat in a big way.
Thus his remark that the people of Tripura should shun "Manik" or gem (chief minister Manik Sarkar) and embrace "HIRA" (diamond) unintentionally turned ironical.
Normally, national issues hardly dominate the agenda and outcome of state assembly polls, much less in context of the far-flung northeastern states. But Tripura, a traditional Left bastion where the BJP tried its hardest to dictate a new political narrative and change the political discourse, may well prove to be a different case altogether.
Away from the glare of northeastern politics, the PNB fraud is likely to have an adverse economic fallout. It may compel rating agencies such as Moody's to downgrade India's ratings. It may also adversely impact the carefully nurtured image of the Modi government in terms of Ease of Doing Business and inflict political costs on the Modi government.
The Opposition has already got hold of an important political stick to beat the Modi government with. The social media is full of derisive variations of PM Modi's oft-repeated claim: "Na khaoonga, na khaane doonga" (I will neither indulge in corruption nor allow others a chance to be corrupt). The trending message on social media is: "Na khaoonga, na khaane doonga; sirf bhaagne doonga" (Won't indulge in corruption, won't allow others to be corrupt; but will allow the corrupt to escape)."
If the court verdict on 2G corruption case had come before Gujarat went to polls, the results (BJP 99, Congress 80) could have been different. But the PNB fraud case has panned out before Tripura polls. Cases like these have the potential to influence both national and state level politics.
Whether the fraud impacts the Tripura polls remains to be seen. The Tripura results will determine whether the impact of national events on state Assembly polls is just a speculation or a stark reality. If despite this the BJP wins Tripura and unseats the ruling CPM, it will only go to show that Modi's Teflon image is still intact. A contrary result will prove the opposite. This, in turn, would mean that Modi's BJP would have a lot to worry about in its Mission 2019.