Smriti Irani, Varun Gandhi or Hindutva: Who will be BJP's face in UP polls?
The margin of victory of the Bharatiya Janata Party in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections took everyone by surprise. But the most surprising part was its performance in India's largest state, Uttar Pradesh, where the NDA secured 73 out of 80 seats. Amit Shah, then general secretary of the BJP and in-charge, UP, was credited for its success.
In fact, lauding his efforts, Narendra Modi called him the "man of the match". The then man of the match is now president of the party and UP is headed for another election, this time to elect a new Assembly in 2017. In the past 21 months, political dynamics have changed in the state and even ardent supporters of the BJP accept that it can't repeat its 2014 performance and that getting 42.3 per cent votes is a pipe dream.
In the Lok Sabha elections, the Modi wave swept through North India. But defeats in Delhi and Bihar Assembly elections have taken the punch out of that wave. The Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) - the two main parties in UP have learned their lessons from the 2014 debacle and are trying to regain lost ground.
While both parties have clear chains of command and absolutely no confusion over their chief ministerial candidate, things are not at clear when it comes to BJP's choice for chief minister, and there is total ambiguity within the BJP over the state's leadership.
Elections are barely a year away and nobody knows who is to be organisation's head in UP. Will the party follow the Delhi and Assam models where it declared a chief-ministerial candidate or follow the Bihar, Jharkhand and Maharashtra models to contest under a collective leadership? Let's look at the options available to the saffron party in UP, their strengths and their weaknesses.
One name doing the rounds for the BJP's face in UP is that of Gorakhpur MP Yogi Adityanath. He became a parliamentarian in 1998, at the age of 26 and has since gone on to represent Gorakhpur for five consecutive terms. Yogi is Mahant of the Gorakhnath Mutt temple and commands a large following in eastern Uttar Pradesh. He is not tainted with corruption and considered a hero of Hindutva forces for his sustained camping of the Right-wing cause. His frequent, controversial statements on issues also means that he is a highly-polarising influence.
As a Rajput, he can bring upper caste votes to the BJP's fold and as a Hindutva icon may even bring in some OBCs to party's kitty. He loves to speak his mind and doesn't hesitate to break, and at times even defy, party lines. He can pose a tough challenge to Mayawati and Akhilesh Yadav.There are reports that Amit Shah has already accepted his name as the party's face for the UP Assembly polls and is merely waiting for Prime Minister Narendra Modi's nod. But will Modi bank on a man who may defy him?
The name of Union HRD minister Smriti Irani is also doing the rounds as a probable face of the party in the coming Assembly elections. Reports say even the party's parent organisation, the RSS, has given its consent for her name. She has emerged as a powerful orator and has the ability to steer the campaign in the right direction. As a firebrand leader, who loves to lock horns with opposition leaders, she is seen as having an edge. While in 2014 Smriti lost the Amethi Lok Sabha seat to Rahul Gandhi, she kept nurturing the constituency and made frequent visits to the state. Apart from being a household name, she also has the confidence of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Insiders in the BJP say she doesn’t enjoy warm relations with party president Amit Shah and cite her removal from the party’s National Executive as the reason to substantiate their claim. Smriti Irani was born in Delhi into a multi-racial family, to a Punjabi father and a Bengali mother. And that can be her strength as well as weakness in a caste-ridden state. It may work in her favour because no caste can be aversed or antipathetic to her because she doesn’t belong to any. But on the flipside, it means that she cannot count on any groups' communal allegiance. Her lack of experience in electoral politics may also turn out to be her biggest disadvantage.
Another name Varun Gandhi. The second term Lok Sabha MP from Sultanpur, he made his parliamentary debut from Pilibhit in Terai in 2009 and than shifted to Sultanpur. A scion of the Gandhi dynasty, he won the hearts of Right-wing Hindutva forces with his controversial "anti-Muslim" speech in 2009. Varun became a BJP general secretary at the age of 33. He has a popular surname; he is young and has been seen working in the state for over a decade now. But he lost his general secretary job in 2014.
According to a report, the move was to teach Varun that he has to respect the party. What infuriated Modi was his mother, Maneka's comment suggesting her son Varun be made CM candidate of the state. And, during one of Modi's rallies, Varun had told reporters that the turnout was around 50,000 people, when the party claimed more than two lakh supporters had gathered.
It suggests that the BJP may not like to bank on him.
Kalyan Singh, one of the tallest OBC leaders of the BJP and a Hindutva poster boy of the past, is another possible candidate. Currently the governor of Rajasthan, when Kalyan Singh was asked about the speculations of him being a CM candidate, the 84-year-old leader said, “I have always followed the directive of the party. Everybody knows that I was reluctant to get appointed as Governor. But, as party decided and asked me, I am executing the responsibility now.”
So, for all practical purposes, Kalyan Singh's hat lies in the ring. Age, however, is not with him but given the fact that non-Yadav OBCs account for as much as 35 per cent of the electorate in UP, Singh would be their biggest face in the BJP.
Another name, who could turn out to be a dark horse in the race, is that of Mahesh Sharma, currently Union minister for culture and tourism and Noida MP.
He has had a quick rise in the political hierarchy, earned the RSS' goodwill with his pro-Hindutva utterances, and acts as a central minister. Union home minister Rajnath Singh's name is also not out of contention. Rajnath was the last upper caste leader to occupy the UP chief minister's seat between October 2000 and March 2002.
Union minister Uma Bharti is seen as possible contender from the backward castes. The BJP's Brahmin face and Union minister Kalraj Mishra may also emerge as a dark horse.
Given that the BJP’s electoral debacle in Bihar was attributed in part to its failure to project a chief-ministerial candidate to take on Nitish Kumar, the party may consider opting for a face to lead their charge in UP 2017. But will that face be acceptable to other leaders? Will the leaders, who are overlooked, actually work to choose the state's CM or will they be disgruntled and create obstacles?
What impact will the choice have on a caste-ridden society? Will Narendra Modi bank on someone like Yogi Aditiyanath or Varun Gandhi, who may be difficult to contain?
Or will he take that risk for the larger goal of capturing power in India's largest state? Can they opt for someone like Smriti Irani, who in a way is caste-neutral and naturally combative? Will the party's state president be considered as its face or will the BJP go only to the extent of making a campaign committee chief, who would be considered the de-facto face of the party? These are the questions that the BJP central leadership would have to contemplate before making a final choice in UP.
The rest, as always, will be in the hands of the voters.