Why a leading poll is saying BJP will form the next UP government
The BJP is in poll position to emerge as the single largest party in Uttar Pradesh, with the BSP and the SP distant contenders.
If elections were held today, according to the latest India Today - Axis poll, the BJP is likely to win 31 per cent of the votes and anything between 170 to 183 seats in the 403 member state assembly.
The BSP is placed second with 28 per cent vote share and 115 to 124 seats and the SP comes third with 25 per cent of the vote share and 94 t0 103 seats.
The Congress continues to languish at fourth with just 6 per cent of the vote share and 8 to 12 assembly seats.
The BJP has reason to be happy with findings of the polls as the survey was conducted before the surgical strikes and during the course of the Yatra, and there is reason to believe that the BJP numbers could go up even more. In addition, the BJP is the only party not to announce its CM candidate, and there is reason to believe that closer to the polls, it will in all likelihood project Rajnath Singh as their candidate, a move that could possibly results in further gains for the BJP.
 |
| PM Narendra Modi with BJP leaders including Rajnath Singh at Lucknow's Aishbagh Ramleela grounds on Dusshera. [Photo: PIB_India/Twitter] |
The good news for the BSP is that Mayawati is considered the preferred choice for chief minister, with Akhilesh Yadav coming second and Rajnath Singh third. There is a certain nostalgia for Mayawati, given the tight ship she ran and the strong action she took to control law and order and communal incidents in the state. There is only a three-point difference in the vote share of the BJP and BSP. If this trend holds, the BSP could gain with the possible consolidation of the anti-BJP vote behind it.
Akhilesh Yadav was hoping to contest the forthcoming elections on the development plank. However, his position appears to have been undermined as a result of the ongoing infighting in his family and the party.
The news for the Congress continues to be bad. The party is languishing in fourth position and according to the finds of the survey, Rahul Gandhi's Kisan Yatra has not had the kind of impact that the party was hoping it would.
Congress' political managers are now banking on Priyanka Gandhi's campaign to not just stem the tide. The findings of the survey could also strengthen the argument of those who say that there is little merit in wasting what many in the Congress believe is the "brahmastra" in a battle the party is likely to lose.
The political scene in the state is likely to undergo a change closer to the elections. For one, the BJP is likely to announce Rajnath Singh as its CM face, much will also depend on what the anti-BJP vote - which at the moment is split between the BSP, SP and the Congress - could begin to consolidate behind a party, that in their estimation is the one likely to mount a challenge to the BJP.
Watch: Manohar Parrikar says PM Modi deserves credit for surgical strikes