High profile exits won't hurt Mayawati: BSP still in the game in UP polls

It has been less than ten days after Swami Prasad Maurya's exit that another leader RK Chaudhary has quit the BSP.

After quitting the party, Chaudhary said that BSP supremo Mayawati had been giving tickets for money and now only rich businessmen can be seen in the party.

However, the charges against Mayawati by those who leave the party are so identical that if you only listen to them you will be confused whether itis Maurya or Chaudhary or somebody else you are listening to.

So what does the exit of Chaudhary mean for the BSP, and does the exit of these leaders change the political contours of the state?

Though the jury is out on what the impact on BSP would be, one thing is clear that the confidence of the BJP has been bolstered by these exits at this crucial juncture before the Uttar Pradesh polls next year.

According to a UP BJP leader, “Exits at this juncture, especially these high profile exits, do lend a degree of credence to what our president Amit Shah has been saying. The fight in UP is between BJP and SP.”

The BJP feels that with the exit of leaders like Maurya and others, it has a fair chance of attracting non-Yadav, OBC votes.

With Maurya’s Samajwadi Party option completely over now, the BJP feels that it can afford to let Maurya feel the drift of the situation and then join the party at their condition and not his.

The BJP feels that sooner or later, Maurya will also realise that forming a new party will get him only up to a point in UP but not beyond that.

Both options suit the BJP. The party also feels that with non-Yadav backward castes accounting for almost ten per cent in UP's population and given that they are spread all over the state, it would be good for the party to either have an alliance with these leaders or to have them in their party.

Even in 2012, the lure of these castes, and getting caste calculus right was so important that the party was not even averse to induct the NHRM scam accused Babu Singh Kushwaha. Later on, his membership was suspended after stiff resistance within the party.

But will the recent exits really impact the political fortune of the BSP in the state?

“The timing is of essence in almost everything in life,” said a BSP leader, adding, “if the exit of Swami Prasad Maurya would have taken place closer to the election, say in December, it would have put party in some spot of bother. But with almost ten months to go, this will not even be a whimper”.

BSP leaders also said that this was not the first time these kind of exits had taken place or there had been allegations that Mayawati took money in exchange for tickets. Had it made any difference to her standing within the party or to her support base, they asked.

Though initially there were rumours that a few MLAs might desert Mayawati, but even a show of strength by Maurya failed to get any new MLA other than Uday Lal Maurya, sitting MLA from Varanasi and leaders like Daddu Prasad who had been expelled from the BSP.

Sources also said that this was the second time Chaudhary had quit the party but he didn't command a lot of respect in his Pasi community.

In 2001, he had left the BSP to form the Rashtriya Swabhiman Party but could not sustain himself politically. After facing political oblivion for close to 12 years, he rejoined the BSP in 2013.

In 2014, he contested elections from Mohanlalganj but lost.

A BSP leader said, “These people forget that they derive their strength from Behenji (Mayawati) and not the other way around. He is a perfect example of what Mayawatiji said that day that after leaving party people go into oblivion and beg her for rehabilitation.”

Though Chaudhary has not given any indication till now on whether he will join hands with Maurya, but like him, he has asked his supporters to assemble on July 11 to decide on the future course of action.

Though Mayawati has taken a hit with the departure of these two leaders, it has not dented her political fortune much.