US won't be able to rein in Pakistan over terror, India will have to take action
Will the United States finally bring Pakistan to heel over its malevolent long-time abetment of terrorism? Not if it makes the same mistakes the former administrations of presidents Barack Obama and George W Bush made.
Pakistan will not be seriously hurt by the US withholding $2 billion (Rs 12,700 crore) in coalition fund support (CFS). Pakistan's defence budget is just under $10 billion (Rs 63,600 crore), so the suspension of US funds will pinch but not enough to change its policy of using terrorism as state policy against India and Afghanistan.
Terror funding
What will hurt Rawalpindi is the US blocking supply of military equipment, spare parts and weapons technology announced last week by the State Department.
Though Pakistan has diversified its weapons purchases from Russia and China in recent years, US military weaponry still forms the sharp edge of Pakistan's army and air force. Denial of key spare parts for its US-made fighter jets, for example, could ground them.
None of these measures, however, will stop Pakistan from sheltering, arming and funding terror groups it deploys against Afghanistan and India. What more should the US do? Unlike the Obama and Bush administrations that let Pakistan run with the Taliban hares and hunt with the American hounds, President Donald Trump's administration is made up of hardened army generals who've commanded war theatres in the Middle East. Defence secretary general James ("Mad Dog") Mattis has warned Pakistan's silver-tongued generals that their time is up.
The first step was suspending the balance of coalition funding of $255 million (Rs 1,600 crore). The second followed days later: suspending $900 million (Rs 5,700 crore) in funding budgeted for 2017. It was announced the same day that the US was suspending all security assistance to Pakistan. That included military equipment, spare parts and technology transfer.
These steps so far amount to over $2 billion (Rs 12,700 crore) in suspended military aid to Pakistan - nearly 20 per cent of Pakistan's 2017-18 defence budget. The mood in Rawalpindi has rapidly darkened. But even tougher measures could be in the offing. First, withdrawal of non-NATO ally status to Pakistan. That would be a serious blow, depriving Islamabad of the latest military technology and weaponry. Second, blocking financial aid to Pakistan in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank (WB). Islamabad plans to seek bridge funding this year from the IMF to bolster its economy. The US, as the largest contributor to the IMF, can block the funding.
Third, and most worrying for Rawalpindi, is the prospect of travel and financial sanctions against top Pakistani military and ISI officers including two- and three-star generals. Freezing their foreign bank accounts and other financial assets could follow. The Financial Action Task Force (FATF), an international terror financing watchdog, is scheduled to visit Pakistan in late January 2018 to inspect money laundering by terror groups sponsored by Pakistan. An adverse report from the FATF could lead to wide-ranging UN sanctions against Pakistan.
Safe havens
Fourth, the US has made it clear that if Pakistan doesn't close down terror safe havens on its soil from where attacks on Afghanistan and India are launched, it will do so itself. So far US drones have attacked terror positions only along the AfPak border. That could now extend to terror safe havens on Pakistani soil, bringing the US and NATO into direct confrontation with the Pakistani army.
Rawalpindi, though worried by all of this, feigns nonchalance. It cities have three bargaining chips. One, leverage over US/NATO supply routes to landlocked Afghanistan which go through Pakistan and can be shut down. Two, a Chinese (and Russian) veto in the UN on any wide-ranging global financial sanctions against Pakistan.
Three, Chinese largesse replacing US funds. All three bargaining chips are flawed. Supply routes into Afghanistan from the north through central Asia, while cumbersome, can replace Pakistan's supply routes.
Washington has already prepared a "risk mitigation" plan to access Afghanistan through alternative supply routes. As one source in the Pentagon said, "The US favours supply routes through Pakistan because of cost, but has built flexibility into its Afghan supply lines to avoid over-reliance on any single option."
Financial sanctions
A Chinese/Russian UN veto won't block unilateral travel and financial sanctions on Pakistan by the US. Pakistan's third bargaining chip, China's largesse, is over-rated: Beijing's investment in infrastructure comes at high commercial interest rates, not in hard cash like free US military aid.
Meanwhile senator Rand Paul, upping the ante against Pakistan, declared: "I'm introducing a bill to end aid to Pakistan in the coming days. My bill will take the money that would have gone to Pakistan and put it in an infrastructure fund to build roads and bridges here at home."
As America turns the screws on Pakistan, India must execute its own raft of measures. It must revoke Pakistan's most favoured nation (MFN) status, citing lack of reciprocity. Under WTO rules, this is legitimate. It must fast-track hydroelectric power projects in Jammu & Kashmir in order to use India's full water allocation under the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) which, inexplicably, it has not done for decades. It must also end the ludicrous daily border retreat ceremony at Wagah that gives Pakistan an opportunity to gain opportunistic equivalence, however superficial and fleeting, with India.
Finally, the Indian government must allow the tabling of a private member's bill declaring Pakistan a state sponsor of terrorism. New Delhi wants Washington to do so in the US Senate. India must do it at home first.
(Courtesy of Mail Today)