Small parties could play spoilsport in Uttar Pradesh election
Politics is often touted as a local game and in the absence of one single wave; local issues, aspirations and faces tend to take the centre-stage. At the grassroots, local issues usually dominate, even the demeanour and dialect of tall leaders change - they sail with the wind.
As the Uttar Pradesh election enters its last stage, the parochial touch of politics is set to overshadow the bigger issues. And East UP or Poorvanchal, possesses a distinct character in this giant state. Amid the high decibel campaign in East UP, especially by the BJP, there are strong political undercurrents that have gone unnoticed.
And these are big enough to dent the political fortunes of many. As you travel through the villages, the murmurs get stronger. As one of the villagers in rural Gorakhpur said to me: “Gaon ki hawa mein thehrav hota hai, sabko mauka deti hai” (the wind in villages is usually still, everyone is given a chance here).
The socialist surge in UP led to OBCisation of its politics. No longer were the higher castes at the focus of UP politics. Two towering personalities of Mulayam Singh Yadav and Kanshi Ram changed the way political rules were to be written in this politically vibrant state.
Almost three decades have passed and the socialist net is fading, smaller backward castes desire a piece of political lift for themselves. And as Kanshi Ram had once asserted "political power is the key to all solutions" - these numerically smaller castes have waged their political war.
Be it Apna Dal, the Kurmi faction or Rajbhar's Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP) (both in alliance with BJP), or Jan Adhikar Manch of Babu Singh Kushwaha, or Peace Party seeking representation of Pasmanda (backward) Muslims or the newly formed Nishad party representing Nishads (boatmen caste), smaller parties are gaining strength, recognition and are set to play important roles. The Peace Party was able to win four Assembly seats and garner 2.35 per cent vote share in the 2012 elections.
Nishad party and Peace Party have come together
The larger Nishad community constitutes the Kewat, Mallah, Majhi, Rajbhar, Gond, Kashyap and Kahar and makes up some 17 per cent of the population of East UP. After the death of Jamuna Nishad (BSP MLA), the Nishads have not had a towering Nishad personality as their leader. Though the BJP currently has three Nishad MPs from the state, they have failed to provide credible leadership to the community, which alone could upset bigger parties in as many as 40 seats.
The community had come out hugely in favour of the Nishad party; the tone "apne hai" is ringing with the marginalised and financially impoverished communities. “Apne hai, apni baat samjhenge” (they are our own, they will understand us), said a mallah (boatman) when asked.
According to demographic statistics on most of these seats the coalition is fighting, the Nishads constitute between 30-50,000 voters. In 2012, Peace Party had lost almost a dozen of seats by a margin of 5-10,000 votes; the alliance makes the electoral prospects in these seats far better.
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| Jamuna Nishad’s entire life could be defined as a resistance to Yogi Adityanath’s brand of politics. |
The alliance is said to be getting good support from the backward castes, which for long had oscillated from BSP to BJP. The "Yadav" focused politics of SP casts suspicion among the community members and the Yogi factor of BJP puts the Nishads at unease.
Jamuna Nishad’s entire life could be defined as a resistance to Yogi Adityanath’s brand of politics. For now, it seems certain that Nishad party will dent the poll prospects of many aspirants in the region. SP is banking on the likes of Amrendra Nishad, son of late Jamuna Nishad, to hold on to the community and the BJP is tirelessly campaigning in Nishad areas to pacify them.
But if you go by the numbers in the rallies held by members of Nishad party and Peace Party, you know many ships could wobble. Dr Sanjay Nishad, founder of the Nishad party and a protégé of Kashi Ram, is confidently banking on the social coalition he has built for his election from the Gorakhpur Rural seat.
Battlefield Varanasi
In 2014, the Nishad community had en-masse voted for the BJP. In two of the Assembly seats of Varanasi, Varanasi Cantt and Varanasi South (both have sitting BJP MLAs), Nishads are numerically strong and can upset BJP equations.
The Nishads here are unhappy about the Centre’s decision to promote water taxis and cruises which would affect their livelihood, leaving many jobless, and the reluctance of both the central and state government in taking them into confidence while planning the Ganga rejuvenation scheme. Demonetisation also affected them badly and over the years, successive governments have failed to provide them decent alternative livelihood opportunities.
Krishna Patel’s Apna Dal and Jan Adhikar Party of Babu Singh Kushwaha, also part of the alliance, could split some Kurmi and Kushwaha voters - in at least some seats in eastern Uttar Pradesh. While Peace Party may not be able to lure many Muslims, who are seen to be shifting towards the SP-Congress alliance or BSP in some seats, it may add some votes in the kitty of its alliance partners.
Since formation, the party has shown potential. It hit the headlines when it organised massive rallies across the state to secure special quota in the SC category. It has also taken up smaller and more local issues on livelihood, rampant river erosion in the villages lining the Ami and Rapti rivers, chemical pollution in rivers and villages and local fisheries. Ever since its formation, it has been able to garner popular support of the Nishads and Kewats across villages.
One enthusiastic mallah in Gorakhpur sums up the entire calculation: “Mallah naav savarta hai, use gussa kar diya to naav palta bhi sakta hai” (boatman takes your boat to safety, but if he is enraged, he could topple the boat too).
Nothing can be said to what extent the new outfits would impact the poll results, but in an election marked by mere unpredictability and silence of the voter, every vote counts.