Why AAP should stick to Delhi and not worry about going national
As the euphoria of the spectacular AAP victory gradually settles down, the next big question for the small party is - should it go national, and if yes, how fast should it move. In the afterglow of the Delhi verdict, the temptation is to say, as soon as possible.
Clearly the demand for an alternative force exists and with the Congress withering away, AAP can rush in to occupy that space, which is populated by the indigent, the urban lower middle classes and the minorities. It might even pick up a section of the urban middle class vote. That rainbow coalition, which kept the Congress in power for six decades, can get transferred to AAP en masse, catapulting it to national prominence within one general election cycle. Going national thus makes a lot of sense.
But - and there are several buts - it is not as simple as that. At the very least, a national party not only needs workers (enthusiastic volunteers can go only this far), but also funds and most important, worthy candidates. These candidates need winnability, which translates into different things in different places, from caste configurations to muscle to money power and above all, to recognition due to longevity or good local work. Building such an organisation takes time and AAP has only just begun.
Then there is the politics. All politics is local, but in India's brand of regionalism, now firmly in place, local means not just dealing with local issues but also pandering to nativism. Whether it is the DMK or the Akali Dal or the Shiv Sena or even Trinamool Congress, regional parties essentially appeal to nativist tendencies. The Janata Dals have dedicated support bases. The days of an overriding national party which reaches out to all sections of society have not disappeared, as the BJP's victory in 2014 showed, but almost every state has a strong regional party which commands its own following. For the AAP to succeed, it will have to not just fight the BJP but also these outfits - given that the AAP has no caste/community base, it will have to eat into not just the Congress's constituency (Dalits, minorities, urban poor) but also fight the BJP and the regional party. In addition, the BJP has a hold over the upper caste Hindus, who have to be convinced to shift their loyalties. If AAP decides to subtly market itself as a party that will look after sectarian interests, it will inevitably alienate the others. This is a contradiction the Congress managed for years - but then it had a first mover advantage. Can AAP replicate that model?
Most important of all, in Delhi, AAP had several advantages. It knew the city's pulse and understood that its innate VIP culture grated on its ordinary citizens from every section of society. The manicured boulevards of Akbar Road which impress visitors are a far cry from the quotidian existence of those who live in Dwarka, which remain tucked away out of sight. This inequality is visible in other cities too, but in Mumbai, for example, the skyscraper and the slum co-exist cheek by jowl, complicating the demographics of the area. The problems too are different, as they are in Guntur, Ludhiana or in Kanpur, to say nothing of rural areas. It takes a long time to fully understand those dynamics.
Most of all, after winning this handsome victory, it is incumbent upon AAP to fulfil its promises to the people of Delhi. Their expectation levels are stratospheric and their patience is not unending. Arvind Kejriwal understands that and did say the task before the party was intimidating. AAP is far more mature than it was even a year ago and will try and avoid the mistakes it made the last time round. But it will now have to deal with a central government whose central party is seething at its humiliation. Mutual cooperation will be imperative.
In 2014, flushed with its success in Delhi, AAP ambitiously put up candidates all over India. All except four in Punjab lost. That lesson should not be forgotten. Three major state elections - in UP, Bihar and West Bengal - are due in the next two years. Punjab comes after that, and also the prestigious elections to the lucrative Mumbai Municipal Corporation. AAP would do well to make a strategic entry into all these. But most of its energies should be deployed in Delhi. If it gets swayed and distracted, the voters of the city will not forgive it the second time round.