Why Obama's India visit could be a game-changer
On a cool February evening in Washington three years ago, US President Barack Obama and First Lady Michelle played host to a blues session in the White House featuring the legendary BB King, Mick Jagger, Jeff Beck and other stars. Obama was about to begin his campaign for a second term as President. He appeared relaxed and even sang a few lines from the blues classic "Sweet Home Chicago".
If a week is a long time in politics, three years is an age. Today a greyer, mellower Obama is considered a lame duck president despite a booming US economy and falling unemployment. His approval rating has plunged to 43 per cent. Obama has two more years to establish his legacy and reorient America's place in a complex and rapidly changing world.
Next fortnight Obama will become the first American president to be chief guest at the Republic Day parade. The visit carries both overt and subliminal messages.
First, by accepting Prime Minister Narendra Modi's invitation, Obama is signalling that the India-US partnership is now a key component of America's strategic doctrine.
Second, the US sees India as a regional counterweight to China. After World War II Britain and NATO played the role of America's counterweight to the Soviet Union. Over the past decade, China has replaced Russia in Washington's prism as the principal threat to its superpower hegemony. India is a key regional power to balance Beijing's rise.
Third, more subliminally, Obama's visit applies formal closure to Modi's ostracism by the US. Modi's visit to New York and Washington in September 2014 broke the ice. Obama's two-day visit, which begins on January 25 and may include a quick trip to Agra and Varanasi (though security considerations might preclude the latter), will cement the India-US relationship that has been described by Obama himself as the "defining partnership of the 21st century".
What are the tangibles that could emerge from the Modi-Obama meeting?
India will push for closer intelligence sharing with US counter-terrorism agencies to combat terror threats from Pakistan. By stalling $250 million in aid to Pakistan last week, Washington has signalled that it is rebalancing its strategy on India and Pakistan. The hyphenation is long over.
The US decision, met with fury in Islamabad, means a total aid package of $532 million (including America's contribution of $250 million) is now in jeopardy as a direct consequence of tough diplomatic pressure applied on Washington by the Modi government. The aid package (under the Kerry-Lugar assistance programme) may eventually be cleared but it's not going to be business as usual for Pakistan's Generals: Washington has delivered an oblique message which will resonate uneasily in Rawalpindi GHQ.
While the US wants India as a foil against China's growing economic and military muscle, India is playing a nuanced game. New Delhi knows that China will surpass the US as the world's largest economy over the next decade. It wants to boost trade with Beijing, resolve the long-festering boundary dispute, and restrict China's influence in the Indian Ocean. India's long-term strategic doctrine is therefore to forge a triangular relationship with the US and China - in essence an Isosceles triangle of competitive cooperation.
Washington meanwhile has four specific objectives in its upgraded partnership with India.
One, greater access to India's market for US companies through foreign direct investment (FDI) or joint ventures. Two, boosting defence sales to India which currently sources a majority of its equipment from Russia. Three, operationalising the civil nuclear deal - in limbo over the liability law for nuclear reactor vendors. Four, protecting US pharmaceutical companies from India's patent regime. (Last week's Delhi High Court judgement in favour of Novartis against local generics giant Cipla will provide ballast to the US position through Cipla has said it will appeal the verdict.)
A Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT) will also be on the table. So will a commitment from India on climate change, a hot-button issue in US politics. The Modi government will point out that US carbon emissions comprise 16 per cent of the global total compared to India's six per cent. On a per capita basis, an American pollutes the world roughly ten times more than an Indian.
China, the world's biggest polluter, has agreed to "aim" at capping carbon emissions by 2030. India will be pressurised to make a similar commitment even though its development cycle is at least 15 years behind China's.
Clearly, India and the US have many convergent geopolitical and economic interests but at the same time important areas of divergence. The US has long been a ruthless hegemonic superpower. It uses Pakistan as a rentier state to attack the Taliban. It has manipulated the IMF, World Bank, WTO and UN to coerce countries to toe its line even when it conflicts with those countries' national interest. What the US achieved in the twentieth century with gunboats it seeks to achieve today with one-sided trade and finance treaties in order to preserve Western dominance of the global system.
But Washington recognises that emerging powers like India need to be co-opted to secure these objectives. Sclerotic Europe, its traditional ally, is tired, ageing and broke. In a world dangerously afflicted by Islamist terrorism directed at the West and a rapidly developing economic and security partnership between China and Russia, the US needs a swing power like India as a long-term strategic partner.
India though must learn from recent history. In May 1998, shortly after India's nuclear test in Pokhran, the Clinton administration clamped harsh economic, trade and military sanctions on New Delhi. Washington continues to be a partner of Saudi Arabia, the fount of Islamist extremism. Since the defeat of the Ottoman empire in World War I, West Asia, in an arc sweeping from Turkey through to the Gulf of Aden, was carved up into artificial countries - Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE, Jordan, Israel, Lebanon - under the protection of the US, Britain and France.
That era is over. But as Modi and Obama break bread on Republic Day, the Indian government must keep this history firmly in mind as it scripts a game-changing partnership with Washington.