Sasikala's blunder: She should've played Sonia Gandhi in Tamil Nadu politics
L'affaire Sasikala Natarajan looks set to be the plot of a thriller which is all about predicting the unpredictable!
Will the duly anointed AIADMK general secretary take over as chief minister of Tamil Nadu after the Supreme Court made it clear on February 6 that its judgment with regard to her disproportionate assets case is "almost ready" and will be announced by next week?
Perhaps the more important question is: should she not bow down to moral considerations and hold her horses till the SC verdict comes and gives her a clean chit, the second factor obviously more important?
Though Tamil Nadu governor Vidyasagar Rao has cleared the decks for her taking over as CM by accepting the resignation of the current incumbent O Panneerselvam, the Supreme Court's disclosure about its impending verdict is a not-so-subtle nudge to her to be mindful of proprieties of the "raj dharma" kind.
If she still chooses to refuse to read the tea leaves, her objective will be clear. That she wants to be the CM soonest possible, irrespective of questions of moral proprieties or uncaring about the real possibility of her having to step down in case of an unfavourable SC verdict.
Here is how the ongoing drama over Sasikala's candidature for chief ministership may pan out from the point of view of important stakeholders.
Sasikala and AIADMK
As of now, Sasikala and the AIADMK appear one but this may change completely in case of an adverse SC verdict against her next week. She has shown unseemly haste in the classic Shakespearean style.
She could have and should have opted to play Sonia Gandhi in Tamil Nadu politics and let Panneerselvam continue as CM, but she wanted the formal trappings and protocol of a chief minister, not the unofficial Super CM.
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| If the AIADMK implodes, it will inevitably bring the DMK to power, an old ally of the Congress. (Photo: Reuters) |
That's why she rocked Panneerselvam's boat - and that of the AIADMK as well in the process. All her grandiose plans and strategies will come unhinged if the Supreme Court finds her guilty in a two-decade old corruption case.
However, seen from her narrow perspective, the tag of a former CM will be good for her political profile and that's why this unseemly haste on her part.
O Panneerselvam
The chances are that he may have to be the stand-in skipper of his state once again. He has already tarnished his personal image as a spineless CM who attaches more importance to his deceased benefactor and the current usurper than to the people. In case Sasikala is found guilty by the Supreme Court, then he will be perhaps the last man standing between the AIADMK's survival or disintegration.
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| In case Sasikala is found guilty by the Supreme Court, then OPS will be perhaps the last man standing between the AIADMK's survival or disintegration. |
The Modi government
The Narendra Modi government has been placing high bets on the pliant Panneerselvam who has been the go-to guy for the Centre as well as the BJP ever since Jayalalithaa's medical condition started deteriorating six months ago.
But the advent of an ambitious and assertive Sasikala, who acted as Jayalalithaa's ghosts-busters for years, has rocked the Centre's boat very hard. The Centre doesn't want to lose its grip over a large state like Tamil Nadu which has significant electoral college for the presidential elections due in July.
The Centre would any day prefer a malleable Panneerselvam to a Machiavellian Sasikala. At the same time, the Modi government wouldn't like to see the ruling AIADMK imploding and disintegrating, as that will inevitably bring the DMK to power, an old ally of the Congress.
Imposing President's rule in Tamil Nadu is also not an option before the Modi government as Parliament is in session and the norms and traditions say that a state government cannot be dismissed while Parliament is in session.
The Budget session of Parliament will continue till mid-April and by then the political scene in Tamil Nadu will be much clearer.
DMK
The biggest beneficiary of political developments in Tamil Nadu in the short-run may well be the DMK, which will be hoping the sun finally sets on its arch-rival AIADMK. But there are many a slip between the cup and the lip.
Next one week is going to be tumultuous for Tamil Nadu's politics. Wait and watch.