Will Covid fourth wave be mild or severe? What experts say

It's that time of the year again. After a brief period of relief, just when we thought we are over this pandemic, COVID cases are on the rise again.

With 2,183 new cases, India saw a 90 per cent jump in new infections on Monday. According to data released by the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare. The death toll climbed to 5,21,965 with 214 fresh fatalities. 

#Unite2FightCorona#LargestVaccineDrive????? ?????https://t.co/vPyEpPEf6j pic.twitter.com/v2bjsUxb23

— Ministry of Health (@MoHFW_INDIA) April 18, 2022

'COVID SPREAD UP BY 500% IN DELHI-NCR'

A survey has claimed that the number of people in Delhi-NCR reporting someone getting COVID-19 in their close social network has risen by 500% in the last 15 days. The 'COVID network prevalence' marks an over 500 per cent increase in the last 15 days, said LocalCircles, the firm that conducted the survey.

The survey received inputs from 11,743 residents located in all districts of Delhi and NCR, reported PTI.

DO WE NEED TO BE WORRIED?

“The surge in COVID-19 cases is not building up the fourth wave, as of now,” IIT Kanpur professor Manindra Agarwal told TOI. “The present rise in cases appears to be the result of lifting of curbs," he said.

The IIT professor said that the natural immunity against the coronavirus among the people is above 90%, which will not give room to new variants to thrive and spread.

Dr Gagandeep Kang, a noted microbiologist and Professor at Christian Medical College in Vellore thinks that calling the recent surge in COVID cases a stretch. “Saying so would be a stretch," Dr Kang told NDTV in an interview. She also said that it is not known whether the XE variant is driving the rise in cases in the country.

The reproduction value, a key indicator of how the infection spreads, has climbed above one at the national level after a long gap of nearly 12 weeks. The value is above one in Delhi, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh. #DIU #Covid19 #Coronavirus pic.twitter.com/VDk0qsDsBl

— IndiaToday (@IndiaToday) April 18, 2022

WHY THE SUDDEN RISE?

The rise in COVID cases in India right now can be attributed mostly to life returning back to normal and people letting their guards down.

From schools and colleges to offices and shops, most places are now back to functioning normally. Even though people are still cautious, large gatherings and people meeting each other will lead to an increase in COVID cases.

WILL THERE BE A LOCKDOWN AGAIN?

Even though COVID cases are seeing a spike, it is highly unlikely that we are going to see an all-India lockdown again.

Some restrictions can be expected to be implemented in regions where maximum cases are being reported from, but, since the vaccination numbers are high and the COVID deaths are much lower,  the curbs are not going to be like they were during the first and second waves.

WHAT ARE WE DOING ABOUT IT?

Following a COVID review meeting, Uttar Pradesh CM Yogi Adityanath has directed that masks will be mandatory in public spaces across all NCR districts in UP and Lucknow.

NCR से जुड़े सभी जनपदों व लखनऊ में मास्क अनिवार्यजनपद गौतमबुद्ध नगर, गाजियाबाद, हापुड़, मेरठ, बुलंदशहर, बागपत तथा लखनऊ में सार्वजनिक स्थानों पर मास्क लगाना अनिवार्य कोरोना लक्षणयुक्त मरीजों के सैम्पल की जीनोम सिक्वेंसिंग भी होगी#Unite2FightCorona #IndiaFightsCorona pic.twitter.com/XcDdIkLOu5

— Government of UP (@UPGovt) April 18, 2022

Delhi is also expected to bring back the masks rule, amid big spike in COVID cases in the national capital.

The Indian Express reported that with the possibility of a new COVID variant triggering a fresh surge, the Centre has told the states to send sewage samples to all sentinel sites that currently carry out surveillance of poliovirus.