Weatherman can't go to jail because the farmer complains
The monsoon is progressing well in most parts of the country, as predicted. While the overall figures are within the normal range, some regions have recorded excess rainfall resulting in floods while others are facing dry spells. What matters most to farmers is timing and spread of rainfall.
But can farmers book a case against the India Meteorological Department (IMD) if it does not rain in their village? This question has arisen after a farmer from Anandgaon village in Beed district in Marathwada region has filed a police complaint accusing IMD officials of misleading farmers with wrong forecast.
The charge is that the MeT office colluded with seed and fertiliser companies to mislead farmers into buying agricultural inputs in anticipation of good rains. The exercise of preparing monsoon forecast is quite elaborate, involving dozens of scientists, experts and officials from IMD centres across the country.
All of them will have to collude if forecast for a specific region has to be rigged. The complaint, however, is significant as it brings into focus two major issues - the need for location-specific weather forecasts and gaps in dissemination of weather-related information.
The MeT office, at present, issues long-range forecast weeks before the monsoon season begins. But it is pertinent to note that rainfall shows wide variability in space and time. As per IMD data, rainfall in the Marathwada region including Beed district has so far been "normal", as predicted. Stil, it is possible that it may not have rained in Anandgaon village.
No current model is capable of providing long-range forecast at even district level, forget village or farm level. Farmers have to take decisions based on broad picture. Short-range forecasts are issued but they can give likely weather conditions over a five-day period at block level which may help farmers take short operational decisions. Block level weather bulletins can be improved with value-addition or explanations. Farmers need crop-based advisories and usable information and not data tables and charts.
Several expert committees have made suggestions on how to improve data collection, provide location specific weather bulletins and disseminate such information. For instance, observation outposts can be established at panchayat, block and village levels with involvement of existing agencies like Krishi Vigyan Kendras. Progressive farmers or young graduates could be appointed as village-level weather assistants (Mausam Mitra or Mausam Didi).
With little training, they could act as a bridge between IMD and local communities - they can help in data collection at local level using rain gauges and also disseminate forecast and other advisories from IMD to people via mobile phones.
Flow of authentic and validated information to farmers is very critical, given the fact that there are private forecasting companies, insurance firms and several free mobile apps in the market. At the government level, multiple agencies - IMD, central and state agriculture departments, agriculture universities and so on - are involved in the task.
What India needs is a national weather information service for farmers to act as "one-stop shop" for all their farming related MeT information, including crop-specific and location-specific advisories.
(Courtesy of Mail Today.)