Numbers tell us where Tamil Nadu crisis is headed

The tug of war between Sasikala Natarajan and O Panneerselvam in Tamil Nadu has the nation holding its breath, awaiting a statement from Governor Vidyasagar Rao whom the two leaders met on Friday, staking claim to form the government in the state.

Here's a look, in the meantime, at how the numbers stack up and whom they favour:

Present strength of both factions

Sasikala: 129

O Panneerselvam: 6

Magic number to clear floor test: 117

How Sasikala can clear the floor test

- With 129 MLAs, she is comfortably above the magic number of 117

- She just needs to retain her MLAs

- There are reports that the Sasikala camp is in touch with the Congress

- 8 MLAs from Congress give further strength to her

How she can be defeated

- Under the present anti-defection law, a legislature party cannot split. Two-thirds of a party can merge with another. The AIADMK has 134 members and, therefore, 90 members will be required to make any such move

- In the present scenario, getting 90 MLAs looks difficult for OPS

- But he can ensure Sasikala's defeat on the floor with support from just 18 MLAs

- To defeat Sasikala, the OPS camp will have to ensure that she doesn't get support from the opposition

- If OPS gets less than 90 MLAs, then they may invite disqualification under the anti-defection law

- The Speaker is the authority to decide on defection cases. His role will be crucial

Can the DMK form the government?

- The DMK has 89 MLAs, 28 short of the magic number

- With the help of friendly Congress, which has 8 MLAs, it may reach 97

- Will need support of at least 20 MLAs from AIADMK

- But any number less than 90 will be under the radar of the anti-defection law

Stand of different political parties on the Tamil Nadu crisis

BJP

- Officially, the central government and central leadership are saying it is AIADMK's internal matter. Tactically, they seem to be supporting OPS

- The state leadership is openly supporting OPS

- Subramanian Swamy seems to be batting for Sasikala

Congress

- It is blaming the central government for the crisis

- By saying "the governor can decline to swear in Sasikala", P Chidambaram seems to be indirectly supporting OPS

- The Sasikala camp reportedly approached the Congress but MLAs are vehemently opposed to it

DMK

- Blames the BJP for Tamil Nadu crisis

- Leaders are speaking in support of OPS

- Stalin has said he will support a functional government in this time of crisis

Also read: Sasikala has MLAs, O Panneerselvam has the upper hand