Boris Johnson is no fool: Don't underestimate a shrewd politician who relentlessly planned becoming Britain's PM
Boris Johnson declares he will follow in the example of his hero, Britain's war-time PM Winston Churchill. He will first need to fight serious political battles though.
When he was a small boy, Boris Johnson expressed the desire to be king of the world when he grew up.
It is a moot point whether he ever grew up — but he has achieved his ambition to be Prime Minister with a relentless planned strategy over the last few years.
His style is of course not to be seen to be serious, both in personal appearance, like the hairy dog in the Duluth commercial, and in his approach to work as well. When he was foreign secretary under Theresa May from 2016 for two and a half years, he refused to read briefs, committed diplomatic blunders, was unprepared and embarrassed his staff and sometimes, the nation. But he is immensely talented and has been the highest paid columnist in the media for some years now. His columns for the Daily Telegraph were brilliant creations.
When he was the Brussels correspondent in his first stint, he created the myth of the European bureaucracy which imposed absurd regulations on helpless British consumers — it was reportedly all made up to make the European Union unpopular. It was largely fiction. But it succeeded in creating an anti-EU lobby in the Conservative party and its right wing supporters.
It culminated in the referendum in June 2016 being won by the Leave campaigners.
Boris was the face of the campaign — while Nigel Farage provided the troops. The issue of the UK membership of the European Union split the Conservative party in 1990 when Margaret Thatcher failed to win the leadership contest on the first round. It was thought that the pro-Europe lobby had scuttled her chances. A thirty year war was unleashed — of which now, we see a new, and perhaps final, stage.
Along the way, the Conservatives have seen off six leaders — and Boris is the seventh. Boris has come as the leader of the hardline Brexiteers willing to leave, if need be, without a deal on October 31.
It is predicted to be an economic cataclysm for the UK if that happens — with income dropping by 5% immediately and the economy in recession for much longer.
But Boris has promised he will do it come what may.
Winston Churchill is his hero and he wrote a passably good book on Churchill too. But people wonder if Boris Johnson has the capacity for serious sustained work to achieve his goal and/or to rethink his promises and turn moderate.
His tenure will not be easy — the Conservatives have no majority in the House of Commons. They have an informal coalition with the northern Irish DUP which brings them a majority of three. Within his own party, there is a dedicated group which wants to thwart his plan of exiting without a deal. It is not unlikely that the very second day of his tenure, on Thursday, July 25, he may lose a vote of confidence and may have to call an election.
Much more likely is that when Parliament returns on September 2, cooler heads would return.
Boris would work out some compromise, a superficial one most surely with the EU, and get Theresa May’s deal passed and the UK will Brexit in an orderly way. Boris was a successful two-term Mayor of London. He can work seriously, especially choosing and using a good team to work for him. For all his bumbling charm, there is a bright brain under the floppy hair.
He has not come this far with nothing.
It is even not beyond possibility that if an election was called after a no confidence motion on Thursday, July 25, the Conservatives may not win a majority but could form a coalition with the Brexit party. The Labour party is divided over the issue of antisemitism and Jeremy Corbyn is losing popularity, even among members of his party.
The Liberal Democrats — who are firmly Remainers — have just elected a young woman, Jo Swinson, to be its first woman leader. She could win seats from Labour and Conservatives and end up as the principal opposition party.
Brexit may have divided the Conservatives — but it could sink the Labour party. The Brexit issue is costly because of the uncertainty it has raised. Yet, the fact is also that once it is settled whichever way, the British economy is resilient enough to manage to rise above the challenge.
There may be short, sharp shocks — but there will be a British bounce back.