Elections 2019: Why India cannot underestimate the 'foreign hand'
In India of the seventies, two hands haunted public imagination. One was “Kanoon ke lambe haath” — the long arm of the law. The other was the ubiquitous “foreign hand”. Both were invisible and supposed to work in their own mysterious ways.
The first — that of the law — though was easy to visualise, it was often elusive. Sometime prone to error, like getting hold of the wrong person, it was also inefficient. Yet, what it lacked by way of effectiveness, it compensated with a magical ability to stretch with time. So, it did manage to create an aura of fear.
The “foreign hand” was more enigmatic. No one had ever seen it. Nor did one have any idea of how it worked or when it would strike. But everyone believed in its existence, somewhat like the Loch Ness Monster or the Himalayan Yeti.
Most Bengalis suffer from a congenital ailment that they call “gas” (pronounced “gash”). It is akin to indigestion but more esoteric. Any unknown symptom is “gas”. That was the nature of the “foreign hand” as well. If something defied explanation in the political world, it must be the “foreign hand”.
That was the era of the Cold War.
India was then engaged in a socialist love affair. Indira Gandhi, who was the Prime Minister, made no secret of her affection for the Soviet Union. The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) of the United States was anathema to her. Anything going off-track in the country’s governance was the doing of the CIA. “Foreign hand” was a euphemism.
The spectre of the CIA’s omnipresence had gained such absurd proportions, it became a subject of satire in public discourse. I recall a play performed by Utpal Dutt's Left-leaning theatre group in Kolkata. It had a song “Shob Sia janey, Sia”. It parodied the CIA — Sia (CIA) knows everything.
To be fair, Nixon’s displeasure with Indira Gandhi is well-known. American interference in the 1971 Indo-Pak War and Bangladesh Liberation is not fiction. The USA was not pleased with Indira declaring Emergency either. Some say that the US may have nudged Indira Gandhi to lift the Emergency. Her biographers have written about her mortal fear of elimination by unseen enemies.
The idea of the “foreign hand” was not a convenient bogey, raised by insecure politicians. It was not an excuse for things going wrong or not according to plan. It was also not paranoia. In the days of the “Cold War”, India was also the playground for foreign intelligence. Former RAW chief Vikram Sood has written about this in his book The Unending Game.
Recent declassified documents of foreign governments, Julian Assange and Edward Snowden corroborate Sood’s story. The CIA and the KGB had made deep inroads into the Indian establishment. Many politicians, bureaucrats, diplomats, police and intelligence officers were on their pay. Political parties received funding for elections from the US and the USSR.
Even more interesting is the psychological warfare.
The KGB claimed they had “ten Indian newspapers and a news agency on its payroll”. They put out stories through these outlets. As Sood mentions in The Unending Game, Moscow planted over 160,000 items in the Third World Press in its heyday. In India, during 1972-75 alone, the KGB reportedly pushed 17,000 stories in the Indian media.
If the KGB was this determined, it is safe to assume that the CIA would not have lagged behind. Sood writes about how the Americans have developed the use of aid agencies as intelligence arms to an art form.
Cut to the present — there is little reason to believe that the foreign powers have lost interest in India. If anything, India’s importance has grown manifold in the global geopolitical sphere. India’s influence now extends far beyond its immediate neighbourhood.
India’s military prowess and diplomatic weight have increased. From an effete “non-alignment”, India is today a significant voice in the non-Communist axis. It is also a major stakeholder in the global war against terror.
This has to be seen with the rise of China and resurgence of Russia as a super-power under Putin. We are moving from an era of Cold War to an age of a “Colder War". Now, cyber-missiles supplement traditional warheads.
Data and social media are the new weapons of mass destruction.
As people and country, we understand the compulsions of geopolitics. It calls for our discreet engagement in the political affairs of our neighbours. In fact, if there are developments that do not go as per our general liking, we tend to blame the government. We criticise our foreign office for not being able to predict or inspire the desired outcome.
Pakistan is a chronic complainant of India's interference in its affairs. Those who have lived in other South Asian countries know how others are also wary of the “Indian hand”. Now, of course, there is the looming dragon. This makes India and China the new protagonists in the regional Cold War.
We are quite open about discussing the US-China-Russia involvement in other countries. There are tomes written on how the United States changed regimes across the world. The CIA is not a taboo word when it comes to Pakistan, Afghanistan or Iran. Involvement of Russians in the US election and Brexit are topics of serious debates.
But we do not discuss the possibility of external players penetrating our national politics.
We turn coy and put on blinkers, assuming that what we cannot see does not exist. In fact, we accuse those raising such questions of being conspiracy theorists. We say they are creating excuses for their inevitable defeat. This has been the pattern for decades.
Here, we are being naïve as a nation.
A cursory look at the modus operandi of Russian hackers in the US will be instructive. It will reveal how vulnerable we are to such misadventures. Even scarier still is the fact that our systems are not as secure as those of the Western world. Besides, electoral personnel on the ground are not equipped to detect such infiltration.
Let us examine a few key elements of what happened in the United States, as per the investigators.
First, there was a massive social media campaign to sow discord. It carried out “information warfare” to disrupt the 2016 presidential election and assist Trump’s candidacy. The scheme took years to execute. It cost millions of dollars and involved dozens of people. People travelled to the United States or organised political rallies on American soil.
As early as the spring of 2014, a “troll farm” devised a strategy to spread distrust. This was towards the candidates and the political system in general. They used fraudulent bank accounts and other fake identity documents.
The troll farm used Facebook, Twitter, Instagram and YouTube. They created fake “bot” accounts and misleading advertising. Trolls produced materials intended to promote pro-Trump and anti-Clinton hashtags on Twitter — including #TrumpTrain, #MAGA and #Hillary4Prison. Trolls encouraged minority groups to either not vote or vote for third-party candidates.
The Russians reportedly hacked party servers and emails, then published stolen files using outlets created by them. The timing of the releases was no accident. They seized on the “conflict” between Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton before the Democratic National Convention.
The hackers stole information on voters. They had names, addresses, social security numbers, birthdays and driver’s license numbers.
The Russians reportedly also breached a company that sells voter registration software. They posed as employees to send fake messages to election administrators. Those emails contained malicious software.
These indictments are scary. One shudders to think how exposed we are to such manipulations. One has to only sit back and reflect to see patterns in much that is happening around us. Yet, what is stunning is the silence of political parties and the media about such a potential threat.
In the US, the intelligence agencies had alerted Obama. He, in turn, had picked up the phone and asked Putin to lay off. What purpose that served is another question, but there was at least action. Further, after the elections, a massive independent investigation has been undertaken. Also, safeguards are being put in place for the future.
Some explain the reticence of politicians to the "Glass House Syndrome".
For example, when we think of "black money", we automatically think: “Sab miley huye hain”.
The same will hold true for foreign funding. Political parties must have taken help from foreign benefactors in the past. So, they cannot afford to hurl stones or point fingers at the others. Sections of the media may be complicit — hence, they too won’t raise uncomfortable questions.
Finally, it is for the people to ask and raise their concern if we are not to become a banana republic.
After all, whose election is it anyway?