Why Karnataka elections are a do-or-die for Deve Gowda
Political temperatures in Karnataka are rising with Assembly polls less than 20 days away. All political parties are campaigning with full vigour as election day, May 12, closes in.
The vigour of the campaigning notwithstanding, Karnataka is bracing for a hung Assembly, according to various opinion polls. While, the Congress is seen to be emerging as the largest party with 90 to 95 seats, it will be far away from the majority figures in the 224-seat Assembly.
The main Opposition - BJP - could get away with 85 to 90 seats, and former Prime Minister HD Deve Gowda's party Janata Dal Secular could land third with 35-40 seats. If such a situation emerges on May 15, the day of election results, then Deve Gowda will be the happiest man. His political bargaining power will skyrocket because without the support of his party, neither the Congress nor the BJP will be able to form the government.
Karnataka has a long history of hung assemblies. Deve Gowda's party JDS had already been in coalition with both the parties - Congress and BJP. Therefore, Gowda should not have any qualms in shaking hands and teaming up with any of these parties one again.
But the problems for JDS are closer home. While former prime minister HD Deve Gowda may be inclined to team up with the Congress, his son and former chief minister HD Kumaraswamy is learnt to be inclined more towards the BJP.
In 2004, Deve Gowda had supported the Congress and helped form the Dharam Singh-led Congress government. But two years later, in 2006, Gowda's son Kumaraswamy severed ties with the Congress and formed his own government with the support of the BJP. However, his government too fell after one year.
Over the years, Deve Gowda has established a secular image for himself. He is trying to win big in this election on the back of his secular credentials.
Gowda is considered to be the tallest leader of the Vokkaliga community, which constitutes around 12 per cent of the population in the state. This time, he has forged a pre-poll alliance with Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) chief Mayawati.
The population of Dalits in the state is 20 around per cent. Deve Gowda hopes that this JDS-BSP coalition will benefit from the current perception of an anti-Dalit environment existing in the country. Apart from this, there is a belief in the party that the secular image of the JDS-BSP combine will help them garner minority votes.
However, Deve Gowda's dream of becoming the kingmaker may not be that easy.
All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) chief Asaduddin Owaisi has created difficulties for Gowda- Kumaraswamy in winning the support of the Muslim electorate. Owaisi is camping in Karnataka to garner Muslim votes. But that's not the only problem.
Mayawati, who had raised high hopes for JDS wooing the Dalits, has almost gone into oblivion since the alliance was struck.
While repeating a 1994 kind of victory is difficult for the JDS, which won 113 out of the 224 seats, is impossible, Deve Gowda also has to fight to save his credibility as a significant leader in Karnataka politics.
At the moment, it's a "do-or-die" situation for him.