SP, BSP not to fight with Congress in three state elections: How much will this influence poll results?
How effective would a mahagathbandhan have been be in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh anyway?
Ever since a united Opposition handed out a devastating defeat to the BJP in three successive by-elections in Uttar Pradesh earlier this year, a formula to challenge the one-man army of PM Narendra Modi seemed to have been found — a ‘mahagathbandhan’, or a grand alliance.
Sure enough, it was the bonhomie between sworn political foes — Samajwadi Party (SP) and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) — supported by Congress and Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), that did the impossible in Kairana, Phulpur and Gorakhpur.
For the BJP, which had taken the divided Opposition for granted, it was a wake-up call. For others, it gave birth to the idea of a grand alliance for the big battle of the ballot in 2019. Of course, UP was considered the most crucial of all states, since the NDA had bagged an all-time high number of 73 out of the state’s 80 Lok Sabha seats in 2014. However, even before the prospective partners could sit across the table to work out the modalities of a grand alliance, chinks began to surface.
The first shock came with Shivpal Yadav’s parting of ways with the Samajwadi Party and the formation of his Samajwadi Secular Morcha. This was suspected to be the handiwork of Amar Singh, who, after his unceremonious exit from SP, was busy looking for a space to park himself in the BJP.
But just as the SP leadership was trying to convince all and sundry that Shivpal’s betrayal was no big deal, there came a bigger jolt, which seemed to shake the very foundations of the proposed ‘mahagathbandhan’.
One by one, the BSP, and then the SP, said no to joining hands with the Congress in the three states of Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, set to go to poll over the next two months.
Elections in these three crucial states are being seen as a semi-final to the ultimate battle in 2019. Surely, the falling apart of the ‘mahagathbandhan’ even before it could crystallise is good news for the ruling dispensation.
But could the grand alliance have made any significant difference in the three poll-bound states?
Even as both BSP chief Mayawati and SP chief Akhilesh Yadav are trying to hype up the issue, the fact remains that neither party is of any meaningful consequence in these states.
The BSP has four seats in the Rajasthan Assembly, three in Madhya Pradesh and one in Chhattisgarh. The SP holds just one seat in MP, and none in the other two. Yet, both Mayawati and Akhilesh are desperately trying to give their parties a larger-than-life profile, through their stiff posturing.
It is not as if Mayawati and Akhilesh are not aware of their party’s insignificance in all these states. But they chose to make tall demands, which they knew were disproportionate to their party’s worth. For instance, in Madhya Pradesh, Mayawati had sought 50 seats, while Akhilesh was toying with the idea of demanding 25 seats. Strangely, Mayawati’s demand was largely focused on seats that were strongholds of the BJP.
It is felt that Mayawati is hoping for an indirect benefit by putting up such a hard bargain. A weak Congress suits the BSP more than anything else. Revival of the Congress party could impact the BSP negatively, as that could trigger a drift of Muslim votes towards the Congress. A section of the Scheduled Caste vote too could switch from the BSP to the Congress.
Perhaps the Congress, which undeniably remains the principal Opposition party in all three states, very rightly felt that giving away such a large chunk of the 230 MP Assembly seats could mar its own chances, in a state where the party is hoping to grab all the mileage from the BJP’s anti-incumbency.
Likewise, Rajasthan is going to witness a straight contest between the sitting BJP and the Congress. Visible disillusionment of people with Vasundhra Raje Scindia is bound to benefit the Congress.
Chhattisgarh, however, could be tricky for the Congress, as Chief Minister Raman Singh remains widely popular despite two terms in office. The presence of a third player, in the form of Ajit Jogi’s Janata Congress, is likely to make the Congress’s chances slimmer.
By striking an electoral deal with Jogi, Mayawati has clearly closed doors for any truck with the Congress, as Jogi himself broken away from the Grand Old Party to form his own tribal outfit.
Just as Mayawati’s tie-up with the Janata Congress is going to help the BJP in Chhattisgarh, her decision to go it alone in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan may also give some advantage to the governing party in a handful of pockets.
Yet, it was always unlikely that a ‘mahagathbandhan’ could have made any significant impact on the outcome of the state elections.