Rajya Sabha deputy chairman polls: How a united opposition plans to beat Modi at his own game
The Grand Alliance partners also understand this would be the final test of their unity as they enter the election year.
The Narendra Modi-led government is looking for a consensus candidate for the post of deputy chairperson of the Rajya Sabha.
Not having the required numbers in the Upper House to push its own candidate, the party has indicated it may consider supporting a candidate from one of its allies, with political circles abuzz with the name of the Akali Dal’s Naresh Gujral, who, the BJP hopes, would get the support of the BJD too.
With regional parties like Trinamool Congress (being the fourth largest party with 13 members in the Upper House), the TRS and the BJD not keen on supporting a Congress choice, the grand old party has no option but to go along with a consensus Opposition candidate. Thus, the Congress has already indicated it will make its decision only after discussions with other parties.
The election has been necessitated by Congress leader and current Rajya Sabha deputy chairperson PJ Kurien’s retirement from the Upper House on July 2.
Not wanting to have a contest, Vice-President Venkaiah Naidu, who is also the chairperson of the Rajya Sabha, has urged the Centre and opposition parties to work together to find a “worthy successor” to Kurien.
The last contest for the post happened in 1992 – almost 26 years ago.
How the numbers stack up
The winning candidate will require 123 votes in the 245-member house.
The BJP, which is the single largest party with 67 members in the Upper House, has the support of 104 members, including that of 14 AIADMK members.
The Opposition’s combined strength in the Upper House, including the TDP (until recently with the BJP-led NDA) is 115 votes, including 51 votes of the Congress.But the final deciding factor could well be the 17 members of the BJD (nine), TRS (six) and YSR (two).
The BJD is keeping its cards close to its chest and maintaining an equal distance from both the BJP and the Congress, saying it is yet to decide on the candidate.The other two regional parties – the TRS with six members and the YSRCP with two members – are yet to take a final call.
The Opposition strategy
The regional parties like the TMC, TDP and TRS have already indicated that they are not keen on supporting any Congress-backed candidate, with the names of Trinamool MP Sukhendu Sekhar Roy and BJD leader Prasanna Acharya doing the rounds for the post.
While Trinamool’s Rajya Sabha MP Derek O’Brien has said that no decision on an opposition candidate for deputy chairman has been taken, West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee knows full well the importance of her 13 votes – and she is trying to build an alliance with other parties like the TDP to garner support for her nominee.
Her understanding with NCP chief Sharad Pawar and Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal is also working in favour of her party's nominee.
Chandrababu Naidu, recently estranged from the NDA, has also communicated his decision of fielding a joint candidate along with other regional allies.The Congress party, having earlier tasted defeat during the Vice President's election — when it had put up Gopal Krishna Gandhi as its candidate — at the hand of the BJP's Venkaiah Naidu seems ready to bend over backwards and accommodate other regional parties.
But another regional party that is not opening up about its decision yet is the TRS. Telangana Chief Minister K Chandrashekar Rao, having six votes in the Upper House, seems to be warming up to the ruling BJP.
After the initial bonhomie post the Opposition win in the Karnataka polls, the Telangana CM decided to skip the swearing-in ceremony. In Delhi recently to attend the NITI Aayog meet, Rao decided not to meet other opposition leaders.
YSRCP chief Jagan Mohan Reddy has also not shown any inclination to initiate dialogue with opposition partners — another red flag for the Grand Alliance plans to field a joint candidate.
One more problem facing the Opposition is that the Left is not willing to support an TMC candidate, which could put a spanner in the Opposition strategy. Communist Party of India (Marxist) general secretary Sitaram Yechury has come on record to say that his party would not back any Trinamool candidate. “Under any circumstances, we will not support a Trinamool nominee,” Yechury has said.
BJP's game plan
The ruling BJP would have liked to have its own member in the deputy chairperson's seat in the last year before the 2019 General Elections — but its more immediate concern is to ensure the defeat of the Opposition candidate, in case of a contest.
While on one hand, the BJP is trying to keep its flock together by deciding to support its ally-backed candidate, the party is also ensuring it keeps its communication channel open with parties like the TRS and the YSRCP.
The BJP, which is pitted against the BJD in the upcoming Assembly elections in Odisha in 2019, is also finding it difficult to garner its support. While BJP President Amit Shah, addressing a micro-management group — Shakti Kendra — comprising BJP functionaries from gram panchayats on July 1, asked Odisha CM Naveen Patnaik to quit for not having been able to develop the state despite completing 18 years in office and receiving over Rs 4 lakh crore funds from the Centre, the party is keeping all back channels open.
While the opposition parties have been quite successful in countering the BJP in the recently concluded by-polls, finding a consensus candidate for the deputy chairperson's post might not be as easy as they would have hoped.
The Grand Alliance partners also understand this would be the final test of their unity as they enter the election year. Their decision would also send a major signal about the stability, feasibility and longevity of the alliance to voters — something the BJP is already attacking them on, calling them an “opportunistic” band of parties.
With the Narendra Modi-led BJP not likely to throw in the towel that easily, the Opposition parties have their work cut out for them. With hectic parleys expected in the coming days, the final result may well prove to be the template of the Grand Alliance strategy for 2019's Lok Sabha polls.