Will J&K see a Hindu CM in three years time?
The last vote has been counted. The Jammu & Kashmir People's Democratic Party (PDP) has emerged as the single largest party with 28 seats and the BJP with 25 seats is the party with the single largest vote share (23 per cent). Omar Abdullah's National Conference has 15 seats.
Abdullah told Headlines Today he has a lot to thank God for having won his seat and notching up 17 having supported two independents. The Congress with 12 seats is taking solace in the fact it is the only party with representation in Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh. With 70 per cent voter turnout in the first phase and 65 per cent in the final phase, the people of J&K defied Pakistan sponsored terrorists and separatists and came out to vote. Most said the vote was for development, employment and a new Jammu and Kashmir.
The biggest outcome of the elections is the irrelevance of separatists who were caught in a bind - they did not want people to vote but not voting could have meant the lotus blooming in the Dal Lake too. Democracy won in J&K. Will development win remains the big question. The verdict is for the BJP in Jammu region and the PDP in the Kashmir region. The Congress and the NC have not been written off either. The fractured mandate is also indicative of a deep divide north and south of Pir Panjal. Being the single largest party, the PDP will be invited first to form the government.
The halfway mark is 44 in the 87 member state Assembly which has a six year tenure. If the PDP chooses the BJP together they have 53, easily crossing the halfway mark. Sources in the BJP say they are looking at a rotational tenure of three years for both the BJP and the PDP to have a chief minister. Should this formula succeed along with a common minimum programme that is expected to be drawn out, for the first time since October 27, 1947, when Indian troops landed in Srinagar - will the state see a Hindu head of government?
The BJP is the government at the Centre. The PDP realises that for speedier development of the state, an alliance at the Centre would be an added advantage. Naeem Akhtar, senior PDP leader, told journalists that engagement with the BJP was inevitable as the BJP was the government at the Centre.
Muzaffar Hussain Baig, senior PDP leader and MP, said he did not buy the bogey that Prime Minister Narendra Modi was not good and personally felt he would do justice to the state. However, several PDP leaders feel their core ideology and vote base would be better served if they tied up with the Congress with whom they have had an alliance and a common minimum programme in the past. This arrangement would require the support of independents to cobble together the numbers and may not be a very stable arrangement. The PDP and the Congress also may not be in the best position to then bargain for a good Centre-state relationship. The third and a less likely option is the BJP and the NC coming together along with independents to form a government should the PDP say no to the governor. That is unlikely given that the mandate, though fractured, makes the PDP the single largest party.
Omar Abdullah said he is not desperate for power and will not pick up the phone to make calls. Abdullah said given the floods, anti-incumbency and the hanging of Afzal Guru he was thankful for having won what he did. The NC will wait it out and is open to all options. Backchannel negotiations have already started. Ram Madhav, the force behind the BJP's Mission 44+, is pushing for a three-year rotational chief minister formula. That the BJP feels will give equal representation to aspirations of both Jammu and Kashmir.
The rotational chief minister formula backed by a common minimum programme and an effective monitoring system could result in both Srinagar and Jammu being developed as SMART Cities. Additional central resources and new projects will be equally divided among Jammu, Srinagar and Leh. Mufti Mohammad Saeed is seen as a astute politician with the best interest of the state in his mind. The political parties fought a bitter and acrimonious election battle. They will need some time to soothe their nerves and then move forward in the best interests of J&K and the rest of the country.