How successful has India’s Pakistan policy been?
The root meaning of success is outcome, result - in other words - accomplishment of a desired end. This morning, I pondered over this noun as I recalled a question asked to me, many moons ago, by a follower and well-wisher on Twitter: "How successful has India’s covert operations been against Pakistan?"
A simple yet intriguing question, especially in the current geo-political context and rise of powerful personalities as leaders in Asia and the US.
Before determining the “how” of success, it is important to define “what” success looks like, feels like. And while, there could be no ambiguity in accepting that Pakistan’s India policy has been a dismal failure for itself, it’s economy, it’s public image, its reputation and societal development - but if you were to ask a Pakistani General, the mere ability of Pakistan to not accept its evident failure is somehow construed as success of the fauj’s India policy.
Any psychologist would conclude this as sickness, and a mental state that has come about by "deluding the self". This is the trouble with "deceit and lies", in the short run it might help preserve ego, but you end up believing your own lies and eventually create and live your illusion because you’ve lost the strength to face reality. The reality being - failure of India policy, which tragically translates to failure of Pakistan’s current national identity, because Pakistan’s identity is built upon antagonism towards Hindu/India, and therefore if Pakistan has to win, India must lose.
But how has India’s Pakistan policy fared? Which brings us to explore “what” has been India’s end goal vis-à-vis Pakistan.
Let’s pour some facts on the table and see if we can make any sense:
What does it all sum up to? To me this screams - a convoluted policy, policy discontinuity, a policy framed at the whims of person/s at helm, a policy which is reactionary and overall lacking discipline, diligence, thoughtfulness and patience.
Which brings us to our original question - has India defined the “what success” looks like, of its Pakistan policy?
As a student and observer of South Asia peace and security studies, it’s apparent to me that India has no end state defined for Pakistan, expect one - that of defending India in all possible ways - by fighting or by appeasement or managing status quo.
While there are folks who would differ, considering the present Hindu nationalist dispensation under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and possibly conclude it as India attempting to “dismember Pakistan” as part of end state. Which might not be entirely inaccurate, surely Modi and his policy-makers have “dismember Pakistan”, somewhere, as option in an escalatory end state, but certainly it isn’t the "first few" on the escalatory ladder of Pakistan policy.
PM Modi began his tenure with posturing and rhetoric of "terror and talks" won’t go hand-in-hand. However, ridiculously enough, PM Modi invited Prime Minister of Pakistan for his swearing in ceremony – why? What changed on the ground since his being elected as PM? Did Pakistan Army halt terror?
This episode substantiates the argument that India suffers from policy lapse, surprisingly every new person in New Delhi naively starts with a clean slate or reset of Pakistan policy, mindlessly hoping somehow by making a more genuine push towards peace, than the last guy, they can get Pakistan fauj off its jihadi bandwagon against India.
This is what I referred to as, lacking an end state along with policy discontinuity.
What followed is even more naïve and, in my opinion, borderline imprudent, especially coming from tenured hands of Ajit Doval - the famed or infamous and notorious (from the vantage point of Pakistan) national security advisor who also has extensive field experience in covert operations. Post the initial Modi-Nawaz swearing-in ceremony meet, India enacted good cop, bad cop policy, beginning with taking out of Lashkar chief Hafiz Saeed’s security lead, Khalid Bashar in 2013, covert bombing of various Pakistani towns and cities, worsening already fragile ethnic fault lines within Pakistan, widening of Shia-Sunni rift, pushing back fauji encirclement of Pakistani PM Nawaz Sharif, and arming Baloch rebels in tit-for-tat response to Kashmir.
Understandably all these are tactics to wear down Pakistan and inflict cost of enmity, but incompetence of India’s policy showed off when instead of waiting for Pakistan to come to table, PM Modi landed in Lahore acting as the good cop.
Really?
Elementary grasp of science of deduction would tell, you require at least two to play the good cop, bad cop act. What followed after PM Modi gate-crashing Sharif family’s marriage, was Uri and Pathankot attacks, followed by continued stalling of investigation on these attacks and release of Hafiz Saeed the alleged mastermind of Mumbai 26/11 attack.
Surely, one thing works in Modi’s favour is his ability to face reality and realign. India has since, drifted back into “terror has to stop” mode, with greater focus on international isolation for Pakistan, aligning US-Afghanistan to India’s policy and continuing to chip away Pakistan fauj’s grip over its subject by covert actions inside Pakistan and overt action on the Line of Control.
But has India achieved any success, if so how much?
In my opinion, the only success India deserves credit for since PM Modi, is raising the cost of terror for Pakistan, and below are three key results:
1) Pakistan-sponsored terror attacks are restrained to Army camps (unlike in the past where civilians where prime targets).
2) Terror attack target and penetration limited to border areas (unlike in the past where terrorists reached major Indian cities and towns).
3) Improved terrorist kill rate to total deaths in terror incidents.
Nonetheless, without long-term policy continuity and national will to sustain an end state, these are but temporary gains only to be forgotten by new regimes in their sheepish quest for peace by appeasement.
Significantly, the cost of poor policy and lack of will to pursue an end state by India affects not just India, but Kashmiris on both sides and even Pakistanis who are trapped in the vicious psychosis of "nazaria-e-pakistan".
I sign off with, Ye tum ne kesa raabta rakha. Na qareeb aye, na faasla rakha.