Let's not predict Lok Sabha polls 2019
“The 2019 election is open” is what many commentators made of the recently concluded UP by-polls. It’s a different story that just a month ago, they couldn’t get enough of BJP’s astute political strategy, clever outreach programmes and targeted social media campaigns. The saffron party basically looked set for 2019 general elections until March 14 happened. And much before elections in the northeast, the Opposition put up a good show in Gujarat, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. BJP at that point looked vulnerable.
The past few months have been a thorough rollercoaster for India’s political parties. Every piece of election analysis has changed perceptions and predictions and (whether local, state or national) is primarily being seen through the prism of 2019. It has become less about understanding what happened but more about how things will pan out next year. Will 2019 look less like 2014 and whether the Opposition will be able to to balance such caste equations. Can the BJP pull off consolidation of Hindu voters again?
The point is not that you can’t ask questions even when no answers exist. What complicates matters is the constant deliberation over possible outcomes of the next Union elections from the results of the most-recent election. Let’s stop predicting and wait for 2019 instead? Mind you, the elections are still a year away (unless the dates are changed).
That can seem both distant and near depending upon your affinity or the lack of it for this government.
Those with political experience often say that a week is a long time in politics. A year? Well, a lot can happen before that. There are signs that the industry is picking up momentum again — the rural economy is recovering, whatever policy disaster or scam that had to happen may have already happened. The worst may be over for the BJP and, by next year, voters may in fact end up feeling very differently. Many political pundits are probably inclined to believe that the worst is yet to come for BJP — that may be true. But what if the exact opposite happens?
Past elections don’t tell us much. The SP-BSP victory in UP and the RJD victory in Bihar may happened purely because of shrewd arithmetic calculations; the BJP loss in Rajasthan can be credited to a visible anti-incumbency wave (or the Rajput anger through Padmaavat as some analysts have suggested); the Congress’s win in two Assembly seats in Madhya Pradesh — Kolaras and Mungaoli — to the formidable leader Jyotiraditya Scindia. As for northeast, the BJP was the smarter political player to take three states in the bag.
How can political analysts really conclude anything from these results? At best, this is pure speculation. It’s not like it’s foolproof statistical analysis. It’s more on the lines of Scott Adams-like wild theories. Victory or defeat in elections in India can happen for entirely different reasons. It is not wise to connect them with each other or forecast future political outcomes based on them.
It’s all very well and exciting to discuss what the government of 2019 will look like but let’s focus on the government of 2014. There are real issues that can still be addressed and a variety of policy solutions that be debated. What is advisable, therefore, is to hold our peace and stay invested in the present rather than forewarn about the future.