Modi magic alone won’t work in 2019. Here’s what the BJP needs to win a second term
The gloves are off. The swords are out. The powder dry and ready to fire.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s speeches at Rae Bareli and Prayagraj (Allahabad) on December 16 had an ‘enough is enough’ tone about them. The significance of his making these statements from the pocket borough of the Gandhis and the hometown of the Nehru family would not have been lost on anyone.
Today in Prayagraj, several projects were inaugurated or their foundation stones were laid. These will improve the quality of life for the people of this great city. I am glad that pilgrims coming for the Kumbh will also be able to visit the Akshay Vat. pic.twitter.com/NZOOjHL4W4
— Narendra Modi (@narendramodi) December 16, 2018
On a high after winning three states in the Hindi heartland, Congress president Rahul Gandhi fired on all cylinders at the Supreme Court verdict on Rafale. It was clearly calibrated to ensure the SC judgment does not take the heat off the issue. Congress campaign managers believe Rafale can sully the clean image of Narendra Modi and, therefore, would not give it up easily.
Instead of trying to offer arguments in his own defence, Modi sought to turn the table on the Congress from two ends. First, using the occasion of Vijay Divas – the anniversary of the 1971 Indo-Pak War Victory Day – he accused the Congress of compromising the country’s security by playing politics over defence procurement.
कांग्रेस सरकार के द्वारा किए गए हर रक्षा सौदे में कोई न कोई विदेशी मामा, अंकल, चाचा-भतीजा निकल आता है। इसलिए जब पारदर्शिता और ईमानदारी से सौदे होते हैं, तो कांग्रेस बौखला जाती है। https://t.co/pbjFNNvEjt
— Narendra Modi (@narendramodi) December 16, 2018
Modi cited delays in critical purchases, starting from bullet-proof vests for soldiers. These were in short supply during the Kargil war but the UPA did not place orders till 2009. To plug this glaring gap in the armoury, the NDA government made emergency purchases of 50,000 jackets in 2016. Now, bullet-proof jackets are being taken up for local manufacturing under the 'Make in India' scheme.
Not one to miss an opportunity, Modi cited the Congress’ past history of defence scams from the jeep scandal to Bofors and Agusta helicopters. The PM did not shy away from mentioning Ottavio Quattrocchi and Christian Michele, hinting that the UPA did not conclude the deal for 125 Rafale aircrafts with Dassault during its term probably because of not being able to come to an agreement on kickbacks.
Moving to Allahabad, Modi targeted the Congress for its attack on the judiciary. Although he was in Prayagraj for functions associated with the coming Kumbh Mela, Modi cleverly picked on Allahabad’s heritage of being an important judicial centre by virtue of having the country’s oldest High Court.
Modi launched an attack on the Congress’ record of dealing with the judicial system, going back to the period of the Emergency, the Kesavananda Bharti case, supersession of judges and Indira Gandhi’s views on a “committed judiciary”.
This was an obvious preamble to criticise the Congress on its impeachment motion against former Chief Justice of India Dipak Misra and Rahul Gandhi’s reaction to the Supreme Court judgment on the Rafale deal now.
However, Narendra Modi did not stop at that.
He cautioned people about the Congress trying to use the judiciary to throttle democracy or waylay the government. In a way, this was turning the Congress’ accusation of the BJP destroying democratic institutions upon its head.
Whether Narendra Modi will succeed in changing the narrative by going for the jugular is something only time can tell. But it is clear that after the Assembly election results, Modi has realised he cannot afford to let the storyline drift any further.
The BJP cannot deny that its communication has been below par in the last two seasons. This columnist had put his #RightFootForward to say this more than once in the last few months. One has to credit Rahul Gandhi and the Congress campaign team for bettering the BJP at its own game.
But proving Narendra Modi’s innocence should be the least of the BJP’s worries. Modi still enjoys an impeccable reputation of honesty - no amount of shouting “Chowkidar Chor Hai” can taint his image.
At least not yet.
Equally, the BJP does not have to harp on the chequered history of the Congress and the Gandhi family on corruption. If people believed the dynasty was lily-white, it would not have voted so overwhelmingly in favour of the BJP in the 2014 elections, which was fought primarily on an anti-corruption plank.
The real challenge before Modi and Amit Shah, therefore, is to present to the people in 2019 a credible report card of its delivery against promises made.
However, the proof of 'acche din' has to come from experience and cannot be established by statistics or saturation advertising of government schemes like Ujjwala, PMAY, Mudra and Jan Dhan Yojana. This ought to have been the key learning from the Assembly elections.
After the close shave in Gujarat and the uphill battle in Karnataka, it is unlikely that Modi and Amit Shah would have underestimated what was in store for them in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. But how they went into the war, which was billed as 'the semi-finals' before 2019, left many observers flummoxed.
Other than die-hard BJP supporters, no one would have been naïve enough to believe that Modi alone could turn the tide by hurricane campaigning in the slog overs. Many view Amit Shah as a dual incarnation of Kautilya and Aryabhatta – equally adept at strategy and arithmetic. But Shah himself would not have overestimated his own strengths.
So, where did the most formidable Modi-Shah duo go wrong in their calculation?
First, Narendra Modi and Amit Shah know better than anyone that people like to talk of ‘development’ - but they want to see what is in it for them. Results of infrastructure schemes take time to materialise. The BJP government lost precious time in the first two years to kick-start projects. Quoting how many kilometres of highways have been built will not impress people unless that has tangibly changed their lives.
The story of Ujjwala or Mudra loans would appeal only to those who have directly benefitted from these. In any case, the urban middle-class person will at best be indifferent, if not actually peeved at the higher price she has to pay for her own gas cylinders.
One scheme that has the potential of touching a large number of beneficiaries is the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana (PMAY). But then, only those who have got new homes will feel indebted. It is another story that in some non-BJP ruled states, villagers do not know this is a central government scheme as state governments have conveniently white-labelled the programme as their own.
Second, when Modi promised ‘acche din’, every person had her or his own take on what it meant for them. No one bargained that this would come with strings attached and she or he will have to bear a tab for it. So, it is all very well to talk of black money - but only when one’s own locker is not raided. Tax is what others are supposed to pay. No amount of sermonising about how taxpayers are contributing to nation-building cuts much ice, even with the most ‘nationalist’ Indian.
Finally, if a child has grown up on lollypops, it would be unrealistic for parents to expect she will switch to diet bars overnight. The kid has to be weaned away over time. It might be a good idea to offer her or him an occasional candy as a thoughtful gesture rather than wait for the child to sulk before yielding. Doing so under duress will only reinforce children’s intrinsic tendency to turn to emotional blackmail.
The BJP did relent on farm loans and minimum selling price (MSP) but was seen to do it under political pressure. Hence, they got little positive mileage out of it.
In fact, on the contrary, the Congress managed to walk away with some of the credit for making the government succumb to farmers’ demands.
The task before the BJP in the run up to 2019, therefore, would be to convince people that they started work in right earnest. They should also have the humility to accept that a few mistakes may have been committed along the way - but the party is open to feedback and course-correction. Then people might be willing to buy even a ‘work in progress’.
Reacting to the Congress’ provocation will only result in self-goals for the BJP. It will allow the Congress to set the agenda.
It will remind people about promises made in 2014, highlight failures and distort achievements. That will not portray the five years of the Modi government in a very favourable light in comparison to previous regimes. It will rob Narendra Modi of his sheen and the BJP will not appear to be any better placed than any 'khichdi' government, if it were to come.
The BJP can only counter this with a positive campaign.
It will have to showcase its achievements of the last five years in a credible and persuasive manner and eschew the temptation to make virtues out of failures, like demonetisation or the GST implementation mess.
Above all, ‘saaf niyat’ has to be demonstrated though good governance. Now, with three major Hindi heartland states and Punjab out of the bag, this has to be seen to be done in the remaining BJP-ruled states. The perception about the BJP’s performance in Haryana, Uttarakhand, Jharkhand, Maharashtra and Gujarat are mixed at best. The Northeast may be in a better position. But it would be simplistic to assume the states will vote in the Lok Sabha elections ignoring local factors, putting aside grievances against individual candidates and disenchantment with the state government.
The BJP can ignore the rumblings in Uttar Pradesh at its own peril.
The tangible improvements people expected under the Yogi administration are not yet visible. At the moment, the situation in Uttar Pradesh, which will be a make-or-break state in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, seems to be more of the same, if not worse than before on multiple fronts, including law and order, lower-level corruption and administration.
No doubt the chief minister is highly engaged and people admire his energy and sincerity. But not everyone is putting their weight behind him or pulling in the same direction. In many ways, like Modi, he is having to work as a one-man army.
If the Mahagathbandhan comes together, the caste calculations will be heavily loaded against the BJP. As seen in the three states and Telangana, Amit Shah’s chess permutations and combinations could not make much difference to the final outcome. To hope the Ram mandir will blow away all Opposition would be wishful thinking. No amount of josh, jumla or event management will be able to carry the day if people do not perceive a qualitative change on the ground that will inspire confidence to give the BJP another five-year term.
It would be unfair and unrealistic to depend solely on Modi to perform another miracle after a dip at the Sangam during the Ardh-Kumbh.
All the states need to buckle up and avert avoidable mishaps. Only then can Modi work his charm and charisma to make people believe “well begun is half done” and trust him with a second term.