Don't underestimate the voters of Bihar this time around
The coming months will see Bihar going to the polls. As D-Day approaches and political parties align themselves for battle, one finds that amidst all the brouhaha, the key players tend to miss out on some basic facts.
Bihar has traditionally been seen as a caste and religion battleground. These factors form the basis of pre-poll alliances, seat distribution, ticket allocation, and eventually even ministry formation. But while it may be necessary to get the caste-religion arithmetic right, it is never sufficient. Especially now, with a direct, two-way contest between the NDA and the "mahagathbandhan" (Grand Alliance), and the caste arithmetic adding up to nearly the same number for both sides. It is, therefore, more important now than ever before to bag the crucial "swing votes". And the number of these swing votes is increasing faster than many imagine. Caste compartments are no longer watertight vote banks, and increasingly, other considerations have started to prevail to make the voter "jump ship". Most recently, this was seen in the 2014 general election, when among others, a large number of Yadavs, and even certain sections of Muslims, who traditionally comprise RJD chief Lalu Yadav's vote bank had voted for the NDA.
So what's causing this change? The literacy rate in the state has grown from 47 per cent in 2001, to almost 70 per cent (projected) in 2015. Bihar has a higher rate of birth than other parts of India, which in turn, has meant that the number of voters in the 18-25 age group, which was 11 per cent in 2005, is now well above 20 per cent. Not just that, women voters, who have traditionally been in minority, have steadily increased their voter turnout. A recent study shows that the sex ratio of voters across India (number of women voters to every 1,000 men voters) increased impressively from 715 in the 1960s to 883 in the 2000s. In Bihar, the percentage of voter turnout for women in 2014 was actually higher than that for men. These, and other factors have had a significant impact on voter behaviour in the state.
However, during this same period, the themes that elections are based on have largely remained the same. I remember sitting with an elderly rural politician in Bihar on polling day during the 2014 general election. And when a local journalist called to ask him how may people had cast their vote in a certain region, he replied that this time no one would be "caste-ing" it. They would all be "religion-ing"! That, in many ways, reveals the over-simplification that many politicians in Bihar often commit. As Shakespeare would have put it, "We fight not wisely but too well!"
So what does this imply for on-ground strategy? Briefly put, this necessitates engaging much more aggressively with the swing voters. And primary among these are the youth.
Each Assembly constituency has two-three lakh voters. More than 50,000 of them will be voting for the first time in these elections. Add to that the other voters up to the age of 25, and you have a very substantial vote bank there - larger and more significant than any caste segment. And I call them a vote bank because unlike older age groups, they think alike, have similar aspirations and a sense of identity. The new generation of voters is connected to the world through social media; living, interacting and being influenced in a world that is beyond their doorstep, neighborhood or town. They are beginning to see images of a world, and opportunities that they would have never dreamt of in their hometowns. Their WhatsApp groups and Facebook communities give them a sense of number and shared identity. Many of them are unemployed and looking for a job. Some are shouldering the responsibility of caring for ageing parents; while others are finding it difficult to find quality education for their children who are nearing schoolgoing age. And when they see leading politicians from other parts of the world on TV, promising jobs, healthcare and quality education, instead of talking about religion and ethnicity, they often make a connection that their forefathers never could. In these difficult and defining times, they seek direction and crave development. And our political parties will do well to realise this angst and cater to it.
The case of women is similar. We have seen how an increasingly larger number of women are now exercising their franchise. And women, again, vote differently. A recent Indian School of Business (ISB) study showed how in many Indian households, it is the women - not the men - who are most acquainted with household expenditure and who interact with commodity markets. Economic disaffection, combined with rising turnout, often plays into the opposition's hands, with the result that a rise in female voter turnout often negatively affects the probability of re-election of a political party, while high male voter participation increases the chances of the party retaining power. While one could argue on the nitty-gritties of such analyses, what is fairly evident is that a specific strategy is needed to connect with the female voter.
In the 2014 general election, India voted for change, a break from the past and most importantly, for Narendra Modi, a leader who gave this despairing nation a reason to start hoping again. This resulted in an unprecedented mandate which was as decisive as any that the country had ever seen. Not just that, in the last Bihar elections, Nitish Kumar led the BJP-JD(U) combine to a decisive win because the people of the state saw a government which had given them greater security and better roads. So it was beyond caste and religion; the real issue was about hope. And the leaders who proved themselves to be more capable of providing it eventually got the mandate of the people.
But catering to this new way of thinking is easier said than done. Most leaders are used to a particular way of thinking, and their organisations are geared to act according to conventional wisdom. To base their thinking (and indeed, their campaign), on considerations other than caste and religion will need courage of conviction. The BJP, led by Modi showed the way with an audacious campaign in 2014. Political leaders in Bihar will do well to follow this lead. And if they do manage to do it, they will end up establishing a more meaningful connection with the average voter. And in doing so they will have created a more progressive and development-oriented paradigm.